1 Data preparation

1.1 Outline

  • Load scripts: loads libraries and useful scripts used in the analyses; all .R files contained in scripts at the root of the factory are automatically loaded

  • Load data: imports datasets, and may contain some ad hoc changes to the data such as specific data cleaning (not used in other reports), new variables used in the analyses, etc.

1.2 Load packages


library(reportfactory)
library(here)
library(rio) 
library(tidyverse)
library(incidence)
library(distcrete)
library(epitrix)
library(earlyR)
library(projections)
library(linelist)
library(remotes)
library(janitor)
library(kableExtra)
library(DT)
library(cyphr)
library(chngpt)
library(lubridate)
library(ggpubr)
library(ggnewscale)

1.3 Load scripts

These scripts will load:

  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /scripts/
  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /src/

These scripts also contain routines to access the latest clean encrypted data (see next section).


reportfactory::rfh_load_scripts()

1.4 Load clean data

We import the latest NHS pathways data:


x <- import_pathways() %>%
  as_tibble()
x
## # A tibble: 462,409 x 11
##    site_type date       sex    age   ccg_code ccg_name count postcode nhs_region
##    <chr>     <date>     <chr>  <chr> <chr>    <chr>    <int> <chr>    <chr>     
##  1 111       2020-03-18 female miss… e380000… nhs_glo…     1 gl34fe   South West
##  2 111       2020-03-18 female miss… e380001… nhs_sou…     1 ne325nn  North Eas…
##  3 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_air…     8 bd57jr   North Eas…
##  4 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_ash…     7 tn254ab  South East
##  5 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    35 rm13ae   London    
##  6 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…     9 n111np   London    
##  7 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    11 s752py   North Eas…
##  8 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…    19 ss143hg  East of E…
##  9 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…     6 dn227xf  North Eas…
## 10 111       2020-03-18 female 0-18  e380000… nhs_bat…     9 ba25rp   South West
## # … with 462,399 more rows, and 2 more variables: day <int>, weekday <fct>

We also import demographics data for NHS regions in England, used later in our analysis:


path <- here::here("data", "csv", "nhs_region_population_2018.csv")
nhs_region_pop <- rio::import(path) %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop
##                  nhs_region variable      value
## 1                North West     0-18 0.22538599
## 2  North East and Yorkshire     0-18 0.21876449
## 3                  Midlands     0-18 0.22564656
## 4           East of England     0-18 0.22810783
## 5                    London     0-18 0.23764782
## 6                South East     0-18 0.22458811
## 7                South West     0-18 0.20799797
## 8                North West    19-69 0.64274078
## 9  North East and Yorkshire    19-69 0.64437753
## 10                 Midlands    19-69 0.63876675
## 11          East of England    19-69 0.63034229
## 12                   London    19-69 0.67820084
## 13               South East    19-69 0.63267336
## 14               South West    19-69 0.63176131
## 15               North West   70-120 0.13187323
## 16 North East and Yorkshire   70-120 0.13685797
## 17                 Midlands   70-120 0.13558669
## 18          East of England   70-120 0.14154988
## 19                   London   70-120 0.08415135
## 20               South East   70-120 0.14273853
## 21               South West   70-120 0.16024072

Finally, we import publically available deaths per NHS region:


dth <- import_deaths() %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

#truncation to account for reporting delay
delay_max <- 21

dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", dth$nhs_region)
dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", dth$nhs_region)
dth
##      date_report               nhs_region deaths
## 1     2020-03-01          East of England      0
## 2     2020-03-02          East of England      1
## 3     2020-03-03          East of England      0
## 4     2020-03-04          East of England      0
## 5     2020-03-05          East of England      0
## 6     2020-03-06          East of England      1
## 7     2020-03-07          East of England      0
## 8     2020-03-08          East of England      0
## 9     2020-03-09          East of England      1
## 10    2020-03-10          East of England      0
## 11    2020-03-11          East of England      0
## 12    2020-03-12          East of England      0
## 13    2020-03-13          East of England      1
## 14    2020-03-14          East of England      2
## 15    2020-03-15          East of England      2
## 16    2020-03-16          East of England      1
## 17    2020-03-17          East of England      1
## 18    2020-03-18          East of England      5
## 19    2020-03-19          East of England      4
## 20    2020-03-20          East of England      2
## 21    2020-03-21          East of England     11
## 22    2020-03-22          East of England     12
## 23    2020-03-23          East of England     11
## 24    2020-03-24          East of England     19
## 25    2020-03-25          East of England     26
## 26    2020-03-26          East of England     36
## 27    2020-03-27          East of England     38
## 28    2020-03-28          East of England     28
## 29    2020-03-29          East of England     43
## 30    2020-03-30          East of England     45
## 31    2020-03-31          East of England     70
## 32    2020-04-01          East of England     63
## 33    2020-04-02          East of England     65
## 34    2020-04-03          East of England     80
## 35    2020-04-04          East of England     71
## 36    2020-04-05          East of England     76
## 37    2020-04-06          East of England     71
## 38    2020-04-07          East of England     93
## 39    2020-04-08          East of England    111
## 40    2020-04-09          East of England     87
## 41    2020-04-10          East of England     74
## 42    2020-04-11          East of England     92
## 43    2020-04-12          East of England    100
## 44    2020-04-13          East of England     78
## 45    2020-04-14          East of England     61
## 46    2020-04-15          East of England     82
## 47    2020-04-16          East of England     74
## 48    2020-04-17          East of England     86
## 49    2020-04-18          East of England     64
## 50    2020-04-19          East of England     67
## 51    2020-04-20          East of England     67
## 52    2020-04-21          East of England     75
## 53    2020-04-22          East of England     67
## 54    2020-04-23          East of England     49
## 55    2020-04-24          East of England     66
## 56    2020-04-25          East of England     54
## 57    2020-04-26          East of England     48
## 58    2020-04-27          East of England     46
## 59    2020-04-28          East of England     58
## 60    2020-04-29          East of England     32
## 61    2020-04-30          East of England     45
## 62    2020-05-01          East of England     49
## 63    2020-05-02          East of England     29
## 64    2020-05-03          East of England     41
## 65    2020-05-04          East of England     19
## 66    2020-05-05          East of England     36
## 67    2020-05-06          East of England     31
## 68    2020-05-07          East of England     33
## 69    2020-05-08          East of England     33
## 70    2020-05-09          East of England     29
## 71    2020-05-10          East of England     22
## 72    2020-05-11          East of England     18
## 73    2020-05-12          East of England     21
## 74    2020-05-13          East of England     27
## 75    2020-05-14          East of England     26
## 76    2020-05-15          East of England     19
## 77    2020-05-16          East of England     26
## 78    2020-05-17          East of England     17
## 79    2020-05-18          East of England     25
## 80    2020-05-19          East of England     15
## 81    2020-05-20          East of England     26
## 82    2020-05-21          East of England     21
## 83    2020-05-22          East of England     13
## 84    2020-05-23          East of England     12
## 85    2020-05-24          East of England     17
## 86    2020-05-25          East of England     25
## 87    2020-05-26          East of England     14
## 88    2020-05-27          East of England     12
## 89    2020-05-28          East of England     17
## 90    2020-05-29          East of England     16
## 91    2020-05-30          East of England      9
## 92    2020-05-31          East of England      8
## 93    2020-06-01          East of England     17
## 94    2020-06-02          East of England     14
## 95    2020-06-03          East of England     10
## 96    2020-06-04          East of England      7
## 97    2020-06-05          East of England     14
## 98    2020-06-06          East of England      5
## 99    2020-06-07          East of England      9
## 100   2020-06-08          East of England      7
## 101   2020-06-09          East of England      6
## 102   2020-06-10          East of England      8
## 103   2020-06-11          East of England      1
## 104   2020-06-12          East of England      9
## 105   2020-06-13          East of England      5
## 106   2020-06-14          East of England      4
## 107   2020-06-15          East of England      8
## 108   2020-06-16          East of England      3
## 109   2020-06-17          East of England      7
## 110   2020-06-18          East of England      4
## 111   2020-06-19          East of England      7
## 112   2020-06-20          East of England      4
## 113   2020-06-21          East of England      3
## 114   2020-06-22          East of England      6
## 115   2020-06-23          East of England      5
## 116   2020-06-24          East of England      4
## 117   2020-06-25          East of England      1
## 118   2020-06-26          East of England      6
## 119   2020-06-27          East of England      6
## 120   2020-06-28          East of England      8
## 121   2020-06-29          East of England      4
## 122   2020-06-30          East of England      5
## 123   2020-07-01          East of England      2
## 124   2020-07-02          East of England      5
## 125   2020-07-03          East of England      0
## 126   2020-07-04          East of England      3
## 127   2020-07-05          East of England      1
## 128   2020-07-06          East of England      2
## 129   2020-07-07          East of England      2
## 130   2020-07-08          East of England      0
## 131   2020-07-09          East of England      8
## 132   2020-07-10          East of England      4
## 133   2020-07-11          East of England      2
## 134   2020-07-12          East of England      1
## 135   2020-07-13          East of England      8
## 136   2020-07-14          East of England      2
## 137   2020-07-15          East of England      0
## 138   2020-07-16          East of England      0
## 139   2020-07-17          East of England      0
## 140   2020-07-18          East of England      0
## 141   2020-07-19          East of England      1
## 142   2020-07-20          East of England      1
## 143   2020-07-21          East of England      1
## 144   2020-07-22          East of England      2
## 145   2020-07-23          East of England      1
## 146   2020-07-24          East of England      1
## 147   2020-07-25          East of England      0
## 148   2020-07-26          East of England      1
## 149   2020-07-27          East of England      1
## 150   2020-07-28          East of England      2
## 151   2020-07-29          East of England      0
## 152   2020-07-30          East of England      0
## 153   2020-07-31          East of England      1
## 154   2020-08-01          East of England      0
## 155   2020-08-02          East of England      0
## 156   2020-08-03          East of England      0
## 157   2020-08-04          East of England      1
## 158   2020-08-05          East of England      1
## 159   2020-08-06          East of England      0
## 160   2020-08-07          East of England      1
## 161   2020-08-08          East of England      0
## 162   2020-08-09          East of England      0
## 163   2020-08-10          East of England      1
## 164   2020-08-11          East of England      2
## 165   2020-08-12          East of England      1
## 166   2020-08-13          East of England      0
## 167   2020-08-14          East of England      1
## 168   2020-08-15          East of England      1
## 169   2020-08-16          East of England      0
## 170   2020-08-17          East of England      0
## 171   2020-08-18          East of England      2
## 172   2020-08-19          East of England      1
## 173   2020-08-20          East of England      1
## 174   2020-08-21          East of England      0
## 175   2020-08-22          East of England      1
## 176   2020-08-23          East of England      1
## 177   2020-08-24          East of England      0
## 178   2020-08-25          East of England      0
## 179   2020-08-26          East of England      1
## 180   2020-08-27          East of England      1
## 181   2020-08-28          East of England      0
## 182   2020-08-29          East of England      0
## 183   2020-08-30          East of England      0
## 184   2020-08-31          East of England      0
## 185   2020-09-01          East of England      0
## 186   2020-09-02          East of England      0
## 187   2020-09-03          East of England      1
## 188   2020-09-04          East of England      1
## 189   2020-09-05          East of England      0
## 190   2020-09-06          East of England      1
## 191   2020-09-07          East of England      0
## 192   2020-09-08          East of England      0
## 193   2020-09-09          East of England      0
## 194   2020-09-10          East of England      0
## 195   2020-09-11          East of England      0
## 196   2020-09-12          East of England      0
## 197   2020-09-13          East of England      1
## 198   2020-09-14          East of England      1
## 199   2020-09-15          East of England      0
## 200   2020-09-16          East of England      0
## 201   2020-09-17          East of England      0
## 202   2020-09-18          East of England      0
## 203   2020-09-19          East of England      0
## 204   2020-09-20          East of England      2
## 205   2020-09-21          East of England      0
## 206   2020-09-22          East of England      2
## 207   2020-09-23          East of England      1
## 208   2020-09-24          East of England      0
## 209   2020-09-25          East of England      1
## 210   2020-09-26          East of England      1
## 211   2020-09-27          East of England      1
## 212   2020-09-28          East of England      2
## 213   2020-09-29          East of England      2
## 214   2020-09-30          East of England      2
## 215   2020-10-01          East of England      2
## 216   2020-10-02          East of England      1
## 217   2020-10-03          East of England      1
## 218   2020-10-04          East of England      0
## 219   2020-10-05          East of England      0
## 220   2020-10-06          East of England      4
## 221   2020-10-07          East of England      6
## 222   2020-10-08          East of England      3
## 223   2020-10-09          East of England      1
## 224   2020-10-10          East of England      6
## 225   2020-10-11          East of England      2
## 226   2020-10-12          East of England      2
## 227   2020-10-13          East of England      1
## 228   2020-10-14          East of England      3
## 229   2020-10-15          East of England      4
## 230   2020-10-16          East of England      5
## 231   2020-10-17          East of England      6
## 232   2020-10-18          East of England      7
## 233   2020-10-19          East of England      5
## 234   2020-10-20          East of England      9
## 235   2020-10-21          East of England      8
## 236   2020-10-22          East of England      7
## 237   2020-10-23          East of England     14
## 238   2020-10-24          East of England      1
## 239   2020-10-25          East of England     10
## 240   2020-10-26          East of England     10
## 241   2020-10-27          East of England      8
## 242   2020-10-28          East of England     12
## 243   2020-10-29          East of England     10
## 244   2020-10-30          East of England     12
## 245   2020-10-31          East of England     15
## 246   2020-11-01          East of England     14
## 247   2020-11-02          East of England      9
## 248   2020-11-03          East of England     14
## 249   2020-11-04          East of England     11
## 250   2020-11-05          East of England     12
## 251   2020-11-06          East of England     19
## 252   2020-11-07          East of England     10
## 253   2020-11-08          East of England     13
## 254   2020-11-09          East of England     16
## 255   2020-11-10          East of England     26
## 256   2020-11-11          East of England     14
## 257   2020-11-12          East of England     14
## 258   2020-11-13          East of England     21
## 259   2020-11-14          East of England     19
## 260   2020-11-15          East of England     13
## 261   2020-11-16          East of England     11
## 262   2020-11-17          East of England     17
## 263   2020-11-18          East of England     19
## 264   2020-11-19          East of England     23
## 265   2020-11-20          East of England     24
## 266   2020-11-21          East of England     19
## 267   2020-11-22          East of England     21
## 268   2020-11-23          East of England     18
## 269   2020-11-24          East of England     21
## 270   2020-11-25          East of England     19
## 271   2020-11-26          East of England     19
## 272   2020-11-27          East of England     14
## 273   2020-11-28          East of England     28
## 274   2020-11-29          East of England     19
## 275   2020-11-30          East of England     22
## 276   2020-12-01          East of England     26
## 277   2020-12-02          East of England     18
## 278   2020-12-03          East of England     24
## 279   2020-12-04          East of England     25
## 280   2020-12-05          East of England     25
## 281   2020-12-06          East of England     22
## 282   2020-12-07          East of England     16
## 283   2020-12-08          East of England     26
## 284   2020-12-09          East of England     20
## 285   2020-12-10          East of England     32
## 286   2020-12-11          East of England     32
## 287   2020-12-12          East of England     27
## 288   2020-12-13          East of England     25
## 289   2020-12-14          East of England     32
## 290   2020-12-15          East of England     35
## 291   2020-12-16          East of England     29
## 292   2020-12-17          East of England     42
## 293   2020-12-18          East of England     44
## 294   2020-12-19          East of England     54
## 295   2020-12-20          East of England     52
## 296   2020-12-21          East of England     66
## 297   2020-12-22          East of England     52
## 298   2020-12-23          East of England     62
## 299   2020-12-24          East of England     61
## 300   2020-12-25          East of England     58
## 301   2020-12-26          East of England     64
## 302   2020-12-27          East of England     54
## 303   2020-12-28          East of England     71
## 304   2020-12-29          East of England     54
## 305   2020-12-30          East of England     76
## 306   2020-12-31          East of England     82
## 307   2021-01-01          East of England     90
## 308   2021-01-02          East of England     66
## 309   2021-01-03          East of England     78
## 310   2021-01-04          East of England     88
## 311   2021-01-05          East of England    102
## 312   2021-01-06          East of England    100
## 313   2021-01-07          East of England    116
## 314   2021-01-08          East of England     97
## 315   2021-01-09          East of England    133
## 316   2021-01-10          East of England    125
## 317   2021-01-11          East of England    126
## 318   2021-01-12          East of England    131
## 319   2021-01-13          East of England    131
## 320   2021-01-14          East of England    128
## 321   2021-01-15          East of England    119
## 322   2021-01-16          East of England    131
## 323   2021-01-17          East of England    133
## 324   2021-01-18          East of England    120
## 325   2021-01-19          East of England    130
## 326   2021-01-20          East of England    147
## 327   2021-01-21          East of England    135
## 328   2021-01-22          East of England    123
## 329   2021-01-23          East of England    102
## 330   2021-01-24          East of England    101
## 331   2021-01-25          East of England    113
## 332   2021-01-26          East of England     89
## 333   2021-01-27          East of England     94
## 334   2021-01-28          East of England    110
## 335   2021-01-29          East of England     96
## 336   2021-01-30          East of England     85
## 337   2021-01-31          East of England     73
## 338   2021-02-01          East of England     67
## 339   2021-02-02          East of England     74
## 340   2021-02-03          East of England     82
## 341   2021-02-04          East of England     75
## 342   2021-02-05          East of England     66
## 343   2021-02-06          East of England     78
## 344   2021-02-07          East of England     62
## 345   2021-02-08          East of England     73
## 346   2021-02-09          East of England     62
## 347   2021-02-10          East of England     53
## 348   2021-02-11          East of England     52
## 349   2021-02-12          East of England     47
## 350   2021-02-13          East of England     47
## 351   2021-02-14          East of England     33
## 352   2021-02-15          East of England     48
## 353   2021-02-16          East of England     47
## 354   2021-02-17          East of England     46
## 355   2021-02-18          East of England     31
## 356   2021-02-19          East of England     28
## 357   2021-02-20          East of England     30
## 358   2021-02-21          East of England     24
## 359   2021-02-22          East of England     26
## 360   2021-02-23          East of England     28
## 361   2021-02-24          East of England     17
## 362   2021-02-25          East of England     23
## 363   2021-02-26          East of England     15
## 364   2021-02-27          East of England     23
## 365   2021-02-28          East of England     17
## 366   2021-03-01          East of England     18
## 367   2021-03-02          East of England     19
## 368   2021-03-03          East of England     12
## 369   2021-03-04          East of England     18
## 370   2021-03-05          East of England     12
## 371   2021-03-06          East of England     12
## 372   2021-03-07          East of England     14
## 373   2021-03-08          East of England     15
## 374   2021-03-09          East of England     11
## 375   2021-03-10          East of England      5
## 376   2021-03-11          East of England      2
## 377   2020-03-01                   London      0
## 378   2020-03-02                   London      0
## 379   2020-03-03                   London      0
## 380   2020-03-04                   London      0
## 381   2020-03-05                   London      0
## 382   2020-03-06                   London      1
## 383   2020-03-07                   London      0
## 384   2020-03-08                   London      0
## 385   2020-03-09                   London      1
## 386   2020-03-10                   London      0
## 387   2020-03-11                   London      5
## 388   2020-03-12                   London      6
## 389   2020-03-13                   London     10
## 390   2020-03-14                   London     13
## 391   2020-03-15                   London      9
## 392   2020-03-16                   London     15
## 393   2020-03-17                   London     23
## 394   2020-03-18                   London     28
## 395   2020-03-19                   London     25
## 396   2020-03-20                   London     44
## 397   2020-03-21                   London     49
## 398   2020-03-22                   London     54
## 399   2020-03-23                   London     63
## 400   2020-03-24                   London     86
## 401   2020-03-25                   London    112
## 402   2020-03-26                   London    130
## 403   2020-03-27                   London    130
## 404   2020-03-28                   London    123
## 405   2020-03-29                   London    145
## 406   2020-03-30                   London    151
## 407   2020-03-31                   London    183
## 408   2020-04-01                   London    202
## 409   2020-04-02                   London    191
## 410   2020-04-03                   London    199
## 411   2020-04-04                   London    231
## 412   2020-04-05                   London    195
## 413   2020-04-06                   London    198
## 414   2020-04-07                   London    220
## 415   2020-04-08                   London    239
## 416   2020-04-09                   London    207
## 417   2020-04-10                   London    171
## 418   2020-04-11                   London    178
## 419   2020-04-12                   London    159
## 420   2020-04-13                   London    166
## 421   2020-04-14                   London    143
## 422   2020-04-15                   London    143
## 423   2020-04-16                   London    140
## 424   2020-04-17                   London    101
## 425   2020-04-18                   London    101
## 426   2020-04-19                   London    104
## 427   2020-04-20                   London     96
## 428   2020-04-21                   London     96
## 429   2020-04-22                   London    109
## 430   2020-04-23                   London     77
## 431   2020-04-24                   London     71
## 432   2020-04-25                   London     58
## 433   2020-04-26                   London     53
## 434   2020-04-27                   London     52
## 435   2020-04-28                   London     44
## 436   2020-04-29                   London     45
## 437   2020-04-30                   London     40
## 438   2020-05-01                   London     41
## 439   2020-05-02                   London     41
## 440   2020-05-03                   London     36
## 441   2020-05-04                   London     30
## 442   2020-05-05                   London     25
## 443   2020-05-06                   London     37
## 444   2020-05-07                   London     37
## 445   2020-05-08                   London     31
## 446   2020-05-09                   London     23
## 447   2020-05-10                   London     26
## 448   2020-05-11                   London     18
## 449   2020-05-12                   London     18
## 450   2020-05-13                   London     17
## 451   2020-05-14                   London     20
## 452   2020-05-15                   London     19
## 453   2020-05-16                   London     14
## 454   2020-05-17                   London     16
## 455   2020-05-18                   London     11
## 456   2020-05-19                   London     14
## 457   2020-05-20                   London     19
## 458   2020-05-21                   London     12
## 459   2020-05-22                   London     10
## 460   2020-05-23                   London      6
## 461   2020-05-24                   London      7
## 462   2020-05-25                   London      9
## 463   2020-05-26                   London     14
## 464   2020-05-27                   London      7
## 465   2020-05-28                   London      8
## 466   2020-05-29                   London      7
## 467   2020-05-30                   London     12
## 468   2020-05-31                   London      6
## 469   2020-06-01                   London     10
## 470   2020-06-02                   London      8
## 471   2020-06-03                   London      6
## 472   2020-06-04                   London      8
## 473   2020-06-05                   London      4
## 474   2020-06-06                   London      0
## 475   2020-06-07                   London      5
## 476   2020-06-08                   London      5
## 477   2020-06-09                   London      5
## 478   2020-06-10                   London      8
## 479   2020-06-11                   London      5
## 480   2020-06-12                   London      3
## 481   2020-06-13                   London      3
## 482   2020-06-14                   London      3
## 483   2020-06-15                   London      1
## 484   2020-06-16                   London      2
## 485   2020-06-17                   London      1
## 486   2020-06-18                   London      2
## 487   2020-06-19                   London      5
## 488   2020-06-20                   London      3
## 489   2020-06-21                   London      4
## 490   2020-06-22                   London      2
## 491   2020-06-23                   London      1
## 492   2020-06-24                   London      4
## 493   2020-06-25                   London      3
## 494   2020-06-26                   London      2
## 495   2020-06-27                   London      1
## 496   2020-06-28                   London      2
## 497   2020-06-29                   London      2
## 498   2020-06-30                   London      1
## 499   2020-07-01                   London      3
## 500   2020-07-02                   London      2
## 501   2020-07-03                   London      2
## 502   2020-07-04                   London      1
## 503   2020-07-05                   London      3
## 504   2020-07-06                   London      2
## 505   2020-07-07                   London      1
## 506   2020-07-08                   London      3
## 507   2020-07-09                   London      4
## 508   2020-07-10                   London      0
## 509   2020-07-11                   London      1
## 510   2020-07-12                   London      1
## 511   2020-07-13                   London      1
## 512   2020-07-14                   London      0
## 513   2020-07-15                   London      2
## 514   2020-07-16                   London      0
## 515   2020-07-17                   London      0
## 516   2020-07-18                   London      2
## 517   2020-07-19                   London      0
## 518   2020-07-20                   London      0
## 519   2020-07-21                   London      1
## 520   2020-07-22                   London      0
## 521   2020-07-23                   London      2
## 522   2020-07-24                   London      0
## 523   2020-07-25                   London      1
## 524   2020-07-26                   London      0
## 525   2020-07-27                   London      1
## 526   2020-07-28                   London      0
## 527   2020-07-29                   London      0
## 528   2020-07-30                   London      1
## 529   2020-07-31                   London      0
## 530   2020-08-01                   London      0
## 531   2020-08-02                   London      3
## 532   2020-08-03                   London      0
## 533   2020-08-04                   London      0
## 534   2020-08-05                   London      0
## 535   2020-08-06                   London      1
## 536   2020-08-07                   London      0
## 537   2020-08-08                   London      0
## 538   2020-08-09                   London      0
## 539   2020-08-10                   London      0
## 540   2020-08-11                   London      1
## 541   2020-08-12                   London      0
## 542   2020-08-13                   London      2
## 543   2020-08-14                   London      0
## 544   2020-08-15                   London      0
## 545   2020-08-16                   London      0
## 546   2020-08-17                   London      1
## 547   2020-08-18                   London      1
## 548   2020-08-19                   London      0
## 549   2020-08-20                   London      1
## 550   2020-08-21                   London      0
## 551   2020-08-22                   London      0
## 552   2020-08-23                   London      0
## 553   2020-08-24                   London      1
## 554   2020-08-25                   London      1
## 555   2020-08-26                   London      0
## 556   2020-08-27                   London      0
## 557   2020-08-28                   London      0
## 558   2020-08-29                   London      0
## 559   2020-08-30                   London      0
## 560   2020-08-31                   London      1
## 561   2020-09-01                   London      0
## 562   2020-09-02                   London      1
## 563   2020-09-03                   London      1
## 564   2020-09-04                   London      0
## 565   2020-09-05                   London      0
## 566   2020-09-06                   London      2
## 567   2020-09-07                   London      0
## 568   2020-09-08                   London      0
## 569   2020-09-09                   London      0
## 570   2020-09-10                   London      2
## 571   2020-09-11                   London      1
## 572   2020-09-12                   London      1
## 573   2020-09-13                   London      0
## 574   2020-09-14                   London      0
## 575   2020-09-15                   London      1
## 576   2020-09-16                   London      2
## 577   2020-09-17                   London      2
## 578   2020-09-18                   London      1
## 579   2020-09-19                   London      3
## 580   2020-09-20                   London      3
## 581   2020-09-21                   London      2
## 582   2020-09-22                   London      6
## 583   2020-09-23                   London      4
## 584   2020-09-24                   London      3
## 585   2020-09-25                   London      1
## 586   2020-09-26                   London      1
## 587   2020-09-27                   London      1
## 588   2020-09-28                   London      3
## 589   2020-09-29                   London      7
## 590   2020-09-30                   London      6
## 591   2020-10-01                   London      4
## 592   2020-10-02                   London      1
## 593   2020-10-03                   London      3
## 594   2020-10-04                   London      2
## 595   2020-10-05                   London      7
## 596   2020-10-06                   London      4
## 597   2020-10-07                   London      6
## 598   2020-10-08                   London      6
## 599   2020-10-09                   London      7
## 600   2020-10-10                   London      3
## 601   2020-10-11                   London      5
## 602   2020-10-12                   London      7
## 603   2020-10-13                   London      4
## 604   2020-10-14                   London      6
## 605   2020-10-15                   London     13
## 606   2020-10-16                   London      6
## 607   2020-10-17                   London      2
## 608   2020-10-18                   London      5
## 609   2020-10-19                   London     11
## 610   2020-10-20                   London      8
## 611   2020-10-21                   London     14
## 612   2020-10-22                   London     12
## 613   2020-10-23                   London      7
## 614   2020-10-24                   London     18
## 615   2020-10-25                   London     10
## 616   2020-10-26                   London     10
## 617   2020-10-27                   London     12
## 618   2020-10-28                   London     23
## 619   2020-10-29                   London     14
## 620   2020-10-30                   London     17
## 621   2020-10-31                   London      7
## 622   2020-11-01                   London     17
## 623   2020-11-02                   London     16
## 624   2020-11-03                   London     10
## 625   2020-11-04                   London     18
## 626   2020-11-05                   London     17
## 627   2020-11-06                   London     12
## 628   2020-11-07                   London     21
## 629   2020-11-08                   London     15
## 630   2020-11-09                   London     28
## 631   2020-11-10                   London     14
## 632   2020-11-11                   London     15
## 633   2020-11-12                   London     16
## 634   2020-11-13                   London     14
## 635   2020-11-14                   London     21
## 636   2020-11-15                   London     18
## 637   2020-11-16                   London     29
## 638   2020-11-17                   London     29
## 639   2020-11-18                   London     23
## 640   2020-11-19                   London     24
## 641   2020-11-20                   London     20
## 642   2020-11-21                   London     19
## 643   2020-11-22                   London     29
## 644   2020-11-23                   London     19
## 645   2020-11-24                   London     27
## 646   2020-11-25                   London     30
## 647   2020-11-26                   London     25
## 648   2020-11-27                   London     28
## 649   2020-11-28                   London     23
## 650   2020-11-29                   London     40
## 651   2020-11-30                   London     19
## 652   2020-12-01                   London     28
## 653   2020-12-02                   London     30
## 654   2020-12-03                   London     27
## 655   2020-12-04                   London     30
## 656   2020-12-05                   London     26
## 657   2020-12-06                   London     25
## 658   2020-12-07                   London     30
## 659   2020-12-08                   London     35
## 660   2020-12-09                   London     28
## 661   2020-12-10                   London     31
## 662   2020-12-11                   London     27
## 663   2020-12-12                   London     33
## 664   2020-12-13                   London     33
## 665   2020-12-14                   London     39
## 666   2020-12-15                   London     49
## 667   2020-12-16                   London     37
## 668   2020-12-17                   London     57
## 669   2020-12-18                   London     43
## 670   2020-12-19                   London     42
## 671   2020-12-20                   London     54
## 672   2020-12-21                   London     60
## 673   2020-12-22                   London     59
## 674   2020-12-23                   London     58
## 675   2020-12-24                   London     65
## 676   2020-12-25                   London     82
## 677   2020-12-26                   London     82
## 678   2020-12-27                   London     92
## 679   2020-12-28                   London     89
## 680   2020-12-29                   London    110
## 681   2020-12-30                   London    100
## 682   2020-12-31                   London    110
## 683   2021-01-01                   London    114
## 684   2021-01-02                   London    126
## 685   2021-01-03                   London    107
## 686   2021-01-04                   London    149
## 687   2021-01-05                   London    147
## 688   2021-01-06                   London    147
## 689   2021-01-07                   London    159
## 690   2021-01-08                   London    139
## 691   2021-01-09                   London    148
## 692   2021-01-10                   London    161
## 693   2021-01-11                   London    163
## 694   2021-01-12                   London    171
## 695   2021-01-13                   London    167
## 696   2021-01-14                   London    157
## 697   2021-01-15                   London    146
## 698   2021-01-16                   London    159
## 699   2021-01-17                   London    170
## 700   2021-01-18                   London    186
## 701   2021-01-19                   London    181
## 702   2021-01-20                   London    159
## 703   2021-01-21                   London    180
## 704   2021-01-22                   London    141
## 705   2021-01-23                   London    140
## 706   2021-01-24                   London    128
## 707   2021-01-25                   London    126
## 708   2021-01-26                   London    118
## 709   2021-01-27                   London    112
## 710   2021-01-28                   London    109
## 711   2021-01-29                   London     94
## 712   2021-01-30                   London     88
## 713   2021-01-31                   London     90
## 714   2021-02-01                   London     77
## 715   2021-02-02                   London     99
## 716   2021-02-03                   London    107
## 717   2021-02-04                   London     63
## 718   2021-02-05                   London     85
## 719   2021-02-06                   London     61
## 720   2021-02-07                   London     71
## 721   2021-02-08                   London     66
## 722   2021-02-09                   London     57
## 723   2021-02-10                   London     70
## 724   2021-02-11                   London     47
## 725   2021-02-12                   London     51
## 726   2021-02-13                   London     43
## 727   2021-02-14                   London     42
## 728   2021-02-15                   London     37
## 729   2021-02-16                   London     49
## 730   2021-02-17                   London     43
## 731   2021-02-18                   London     42
## 732   2021-02-19                   London     41
## 733   2021-02-20                   London     28
## 734   2021-02-21                   London     35
## 735   2021-02-22                   London     31
## 736   2021-02-23                   London     23
## 737   2021-02-24                   London     25
## 738   2021-02-25                   London     20
## 739   2021-02-26                   London     23
## 740   2021-02-27                   London     17
## 741   2021-02-28                   London     13
## 742   2021-03-01                   London     25
## 743   2021-03-02                   London     21
## 744   2021-03-03                   London      8
## 745   2021-03-04                   London     12
## 746   2021-03-05                   London     16
## 747   2021-03-06                   London     15
## 748   2021-03-07                   London      9
## 749   2021-03-08                   London      9
## 750   2021-03-09                   London      8
## 751   2021-03-10                   London      4
## 752   2021-03-11                   London      3
## 753   2020-03-01                 Midlands      0
## 754   2020-03-02                 Midlands      0
## 755   2020-03-03                 Midlands      1
## 756   2020-03-04                 Midlands      0
## 757   2020-03-05                 Midlands      0
## 758   2020-03-06                 Midlands      0
## 759   2020-03-07                 Midlands      0
## 760   2020-03-08                 Midlands      2
## 761   2020-03-09                 Midlands      1
## 762   2020-03-10                 Midlands      0
## 763   2020-03-11                 Midlands      2
## 764   2020-03-12                 Midlands      6
## 765   2020-03-13                 Midlands      5
## 766   2020-03-14                 Midlands      4
## 767   2020-03-15                 Midlands      5
## 768   2020-03-16                 Midlands     11
## 769   2020-03-17                 Midlands      8
## 770   2020-03-18                 Midlands     13
## 771   2020-03-19                 Midlands      8
## 772   2020-03-20                 Midlands     28
## 773   2020-03-21                 Midlands     13
## 774   2020-03-22                 Midlands     31
## 775   2020-03-23                 Midlands     33
## 776   2020-03-24                 Midlands     41
## 777   2020-03-25                 Midlands     48
## 778   2020-03-26                 Midlands     64
## 779   2020-03-27                 Midlands     72
## 780   2020-03-28                 Midlands     89
## 781   2020-03-29                 Midlands     92
## 782   2020-03-30                 Midlands     90
## 783   2020-03-31                 Midlands    123
## 784   2020-04-01                 Midlands    140
## 785   2020-04-02                 Midlands    142
## 786   2020-04-03                 Midlands    124
## 787   2020-04-04                 Midlands    151
## 788   2020-04-05                 Midlands    164
## 789   2020-04-06                 Midlands    140
## 790   2020-04-07                 Midlands    123
## 791   2020-04-08                 Midlands    186
## 792   2020-04-09                 Midlands    140
## 793   2020-04-10                 Midlands    127
## 794   2020-04-11                 Midlands    142
## 795   2020-04-12                 Midlands    139
## 796   2020-04-13                 Midlands    121
## 797   2020-04-14                 Midlands    116
## 798   2020-04-15                 Midlands    147
## 799   2020-04-16                 Midlands    102
## 800   2020-04-17                 Midlands    118
## 801   2020-04-18                 Midlands    115
## 802   2020-04-19                 Midlands     93
## 803   2020-04-20                 Midlands    107
## 804   2020-04-21                 Midlands     87
## 805   2020-04-22                 Midlands     78
## 806   2020-04-23                 Midlands    103
## 807   2020-04-24                 Midlands     79
## 808   2020-04-25                 Midlands     72
## 809   2020-04-26                 Midlands     81
## 810   2020-04-27                 Midlands     74
## 811   2020-04-28                 Midlands     68
## 812   2020-04-29                 Midlands     53
## 813   2020-04-30                 Midlands     56
## 814   2020-05-01                 Midlands     65
## 815   2020-05-02                 Midlands     51
## 816   2020-05-03                 Midlands     52
## 817   2020-05-04                 Midlands     61
## 818   2020-05-05                 Midlands     59
## 819   2020-05-06                 Midlands     59
## 820   2020-05-07                 Midlands     48
## 821   2020-05-08                 Midlands     34
## 822   2020-05-09                 Midlands     37
## 823   2020-05-10                 Midlands     42
## 824   2020-05-11                 Midlands     33
## 825   2020-05-12                 Midlands     45
## 826   2020-05-13                 Midlands     40
## 827   2020-05-14                 Midlands     39
## 828   2020-05-15                 Midlands     40
## 829   2020-05-16                 Midlands     34
## 830   2020-05-17                 Midlands     31
## 831   2020-05-18                 Midlands     36
## 832   2020-05-19                 Midlands     35
## 833   2020-05-20                 Midlands     36
## 834   2020-05-21                 Midlands     32
## 835   2020-05-22                 Midlands     27
## 836   2020-05-23                 Midlands     34
## 837   2020-05-24                 Midlands     20
## 838   2020-05-25                 Midlands     26
## 839   2020-05-26                 Midlands     33
## 840   2020-05-27                 Midlands     29
## 841   2020-05-28                 Midlands     28
## 842   2020-05-29                 Midlands     20
## 843   2020-05-30                 Midlands     21
## 844   2020-05-31                 Midlands     22
## 845   2020-06-01                 Midlands     20
## 846   2020-06-02                 Midlands     22
## 847   2020-06-03                 Midlands     24
## 848   2020-06-04                 Midlands     16
## 849   2020-06-05                 Midlands     21
## 850   2020-06-06                 Midlands     20
## 851   2020-06-07                 Midlands     17
## 852   2020-06-08                 Midlands     16
## 853   2020-06-09                 Midlands     18
## 854   2020-06-10                 Midlands     15
## 855   2020-06-11                 Midlands     13
## 856   2020-06-12                 Midlands     12
## 857   2020-06-13                 Midlands      6
## 858   2020-06-14                 Midlands     18
## 859   2020-06-15                 Midlands     12
## 860   2020-06-16                 Midlands     15
## 861   2020-06-17                 Midlands     11
## 862   2020-06-18                 Midlands     15
## 863   2020-06-19                 Midlands     10
## 864   2020-06-20                 Midlands     15
## 865   2020-06-21                 Midlands     14
## 866   2020-06-22                 Midlands     14
## 867   2020-06-23                 Midlands     16
## 868   2020-06-24                 Midlands     15
## 869   2020-06-25                 Midlands     19
## 870   2020-06-26                 Midlands      5
## 871   2020-06-27                 Midlands      5
## 872   2020-06-28                 Midlands      7
## 873   2020-06-29                 Midlands      6
## 874   2020-06-30                 Midlands      6
## 875   2020-07-01                 Midlands      7
## 876   2020-07-02                 Midlands     10
## 877   2020-07-03                 Midlands      3
## 878   2020-07-04                 Midlands      4
## 879   2020-07-05                 Midlands      6
## 880   2020-07-06                 Midlands      5
## 881   2020-07-07                 Midlands      3
## 882   2020-07-08                 Midlands      5
## 883   2020-07-09                 Midlands      9
## 884   2020-07-10                 Midlands      3
## 885   2020-07-11                 Midlands      0
## 886   2020-07-12                 Midlands      5
## 887   2020-07-13                 Midlands      1
## 888   2020-07-14                 Midlands      1
## 889   2020-07-15                 Midlands      6
## 890   2020-07-16                 Midlands      2
## 891   2020-07-17                 Midlands      3
## 892   2020-07-18                 Midlands      3
## 893   2020-07-19                 Midlands      3
## 894   2020-07-20                 Midlands      3
## 895   2020-07-21                 Midlands      1
## 896   2020-07-22                 Midlands      2
## 897   2020-07-23                 Midlands      6
## 898   2020-07-24                 Midlands      1
## 899   2020-07-25                 Midlands      4
## 900   2020-07-26                 Midlands      4
## 901   2020-07-27                 Midlands      5
## 902   2020-07-28                 Midlands      1
## 903   2020-07-29                 Midlands      1
## 904   2020-07-30                 Midlands      1
## 905   2020-07-31                 Midlands      2
## 906   2020-08-01                 Midlands      0
## 907   2020-08-02                 Midlands      1
## 908   2020-08-03                 Midlands      2
## 909   2020-08-04                 Midlands      1
## 910   2020-08-05                 Midlands      1
## 911   2020-08-06                 Midlands      0
## 912   2020-08-07                 Midlands      3
## 913   2020-08-08                 Midlands      2
## 914   2020-08-09                 Midlands      0
## 915   2020-08-10                 Midlands      0
## 916   2020-08-11                 Midlands      2
## 917   2020-08-12                 Midlands      0
## 918   2020-08-13                 Midlands      0
## 919   2020-08-14                 Midlands      0
## 920   2020-08-15                 Midlands      1
## 921   2020-08-16                 Midlands      0
## 922   2020-08-17                 Midlands      0
## 923   2020-08-18                 Midlands      0
## 924   2020-08-19                 Midlands      0
## 925   2020-08-20                 Midlands      0
## 926   2020-08-21                 Midlands      1
## 927   2020-08-22                 Midlands      0
## 928   2020-08-23                 Midlands      0
## 929   2020-08-24                 Midlands      0
## 930   2020-08-25                 Midlands      2
## 931   2020-08-26                 Midlands      3
## 932   2020-08-27                 Midlands      2
## 933   2020-08-28                 Midlands      1
## 934   2020-08-29                 Midlands      0
## 935   2020-08-30                 Midlands      2
## 936   2020-08-31                 Midlands      1
## 937   2020-09-01                 Midlands      0
## 938   2020-09-02                 Midlands      2
## 939   2020-09-03                 Midlands      0
## 940   2020-09-04                 Midlands      0
## 941   2020-09-05                 Midlands      0
## 942   2020-09-06                 Midlands      1
## 943   2020-09-07                 Midlands      1
## 944   2020-09-08                 Midlands      3
## 945   2020-09-09                 Midlands      0
## 946   2020-09-10                 Midlands      1
## 947   2020-09-11                 Midlands      1
## 948   2020-09-12                 Midlands      2
## 949   2020-09-13                 Midlands      4
## 950   2020-09-14                 Midlands      1
## 951   2020-09-15                 Midlands      2
## 952   2020-09-16                 Midlands      3
## 953   2020-09-17                 Midlands      2
## 954   2020-09-18                 Midlands      5
## 955   2020-09-19                 Midlands      2
## 956   2020-09-20                 Midlands      7
## 957   2020-09-21                 Midlands      3
## 958   2020-09-22                 Midlands      4
## 959   2020-09-23                 Midlands     10
## 960   2020-09-24                 Midlands      7
## 961   2020-09-25                 Midlands      4
## 962   2020-09-26                 Midlands      5
## 963   2020-09-27                 Midlands      9
## 964   2020-09-28                 Midlands      6
## 965   2020-09-29                 Midlands      4
## 966   2020-09-30                 Midlands      5
## 967   2020-10-01                 Midlands      8
## 968   2020-10-02                 Midlands      7
## 969   2020-10-03                 Midlands      6
## 970   2020-10-04                 Midlands      7
## 971   2020-10-05                 Midlands      6
## 972   2020-10-06                 Midlands      5
## 973   2020-10-07                 Midlands      9
## 974   2020-10-08                 Midlands      8
## 975   2020-10-09                 Midlands      7
## 976   2020-10-10                 Midlands      2
## 977   2020-10-11                 Midlands     15
## 978   2020-10-12                 Midlands      7
## 979   2020-10-13                 Midlands     16
## 980   2020-10-14                 Midlands     12
## 981   2020-10-15                 Midlands     11
## 982   2020-10-16                 Midlands     18
## 983   2020-10-17                 Midlands     25
## 984   2020-10-18                 Midlands     11
## 985   2020-10-19                 Midlands     14
## 986   2020-10-20                 Midlands     19
## 987   2020-10-21                 Midlands     15
## 988   2020-10-22                 Midlands     34
## 989   2020-10-23                 Midlands     32
## 990   2020-10-24                 Midlands     24
## 991   2020-10-25                 Midlands     30
## 992   2020-10-26                 Midlands     33
## 993   2020-10-27                 Midlands     38
## 994   2020-10-28                 Midlands     30
## 995   2020-10-29                 Midlands     42
## 996   2020-10-30                 Midlands     42
## 997   2020-10-31                 Midlands     50
## 998   2020-11-01                 Midlands     44
## 999   2020-11-02                 Midlands     58
## 1000  2020-11-03                 Midlands     37
## 1001  2020-11-04                 Midlands     67
## 1002  2020-11-05                 Midlands     50
## 1003  2020-11-06                 Midlands     43
## 1004  2020-11-07                 Midlands     60
## 1005  2020-11-08                 Midlands     55
## 1006  2020-11-09                 Midlands     67
## 1007  2020-11-10                 Midlands     68
## 1008  2020-11-11                 Midlands     58
## 1009  2020-11-12                 Midlands     64
## 1010  2020-11-13                 Midlands     47
## 1011  2020-11-14                 Midlands     66
## 1012  2020-11-15                 Midlands     72
## 1013  2020-11-16                 Midlands     66
## 1014  2020-11-17                 Midlands     66
## 1015  2020-11-18                 Midlands     83
## 1016  2020-11-19                 Midlands     73
## 1017  2020-11-20                 Midlands     87
## 1018  2020-11-21                 Midlands     59
## 1019  2020-11-22                 Midlands     84
## 1020  2020-11-23                 Midlands     80
## 1021  2020-11-24                 Midlands     73
## 1022  2020-11-25                 Midlands     74
## 1023  2020-11-26                 Midlands     77
## 1024  2020-11-27                 Midlands     78
## 1025  2020-11-28                 Midlands     80
## 1026  2020-11-29                 Midlands     86
## 1027  2020-11-30                 Midlands     79
## 1028  2020-12-01                 Midlands     74
## 1029  2020-12-02                 Midlands     64
## 1030  2020-12-03                 Midlands     82
## 1031  2020-12-04                 Midlands     67
## 1032  2020-12-05                 Midlands     71
## 1033  2020-12-06                 Midlands     75
## 1034  2020-12-07                 Midlands     68
## 1035  2020-12-08                 Midlands     66
## 1036  2020-12-09                 Midlands     63
## 1037  2020-12-10                 Midlands     75
## 1038  2020-12-11                 Midlands     65
## 1039  2020-12-12                 Midlands     81
## 1040  2020-12-13                 Midlands     78
## 1041  2020-12-14                 Midlands     77
## 1042  2020-12-15                 Midlands     73
## 1043  2020-12-16                 Midlands     74
## 1044  2020-12-17                 Midlands     86
## 1045  2020-12-18                 Midlands     81
## 1046  2020-12-19                 Midlands     57
## 1047  2020-12-20                 Midlands     67
## 1048  2020-12-21                 Midlands     85
## 1049  2020-12-22                 Midlands     74
## 1050  2020-12-23                 Midlands     58
## 1051  2020-12-24                 Midlands     68
## 1052  2020-12-25                 Midlands     81
## 1053  2020-12-26                 Midlands     74
## 1054  2020-12-27                 Midlands     87
## 1055  2020-12-28                 Midlands     64
## 1056  2020-12-29                 Midlands     83
## 1057  2020-12-30                 Midlands    100
## 1058  2020-12-31                 Midlands     89
## 1059  2021-01-01                 Midlands     77
## 1060  2021-01-02                 Midlands     76
## 1061  2021-01-03                 Midlands     71
## 1062  2021-01-04                 Midlands     96
## 1063  2021-01-05                 Midlands    106
## 1064  2021-01-06                 Midlands    112
## 1065  2021-01-07                 Midlands    106
## 1066  2021-01-08                 Midlands    131
## 1067  2021-01-09                 Midlands    141
## 1068  2021-01-10                 Midlands    122
## 1069  2021-01-11                 Midlands    146
## 1070  2021-01-12                 Midlands    161
## 1071  2021-01-13                 Midlands    141
## 1072  2021-01-14                 Midlands    157
## 1073  2021-01-15                 Midlands    131
## 1074  2021-01-16                 Midlands    150
## 1075  2021-01-17                 Midlands    158
## 1076  2021-01-18                 Midlands    163
## 1077  2021-01-19                 Midlands    157
## 1078  2021-01-20                 Midlands    150
## 1079  2021-01-21                 Midlands    158
## 1080  2021-01-22                 Midlands    160
## 1081  2021-01-23                 Midlands    142
## 1082  2021-01-24                 Midlands    168
## 1083  2021-01-25                 Midlands    155
## 1084  2021-01-26                 Midlands    144
## 1085  2021-01-27                 Midlands    138
## 1086  2021-01-28                 Midlands    140
## 1087  2021-01-29                 Midlands    150
## 1088  2021-01-30                 Midlands    124
## 1089  2021-01-31                 Midlands    111
## 1090  2021-02-01                 Midlands    137
## 1091  2021-02-02                 Midlands    131
## 1092  2021-02-03                 Midlands    135
## 1093  2021-02-04                 Midlands    111
## 1094  2021-02-05                 Midlands    111
## 1095  2021-02-06                 Midlands     93
## 1096  2021-02-07                 Midlands    109
## 1097  2021-02-08                 Midlands    100
## 1098  2021-02-09                 Midlands     96
## 1099  2021-02-10                 Midlands     93
## 1100  2021-02-11                 Midlands     91
## 1101  2021-02-12                 Midlands     88
## 1102  2021-02-13                 Midlands     67
## 1103  2021-02-14                 Midlands     82
## 1104  2021-02-15                 Midlands     86
## 1105  2021-02-16                 Midlands     77
## 1106  2021-02-17                 Midlands     66
## 1107  2021-02-18                 Midlands     67
## 1108  2021-02-19                 Midlands     54
## 1109  2021-02-20                 Midlands     67
## 1110  2021-02-21                 Midlands     56
## 1111  2021-02-22                 Midlands     53
## 1112  2021-02-23                 Midlands     55
## 1113  2021-02-24                 Midlands     51
## 1114  2021-02-25                 Midlands     52
## 1115  2021-02-26                 Midlands     42
## 1116  2021-02-27                 Midlands     43
## 1117  2021-02-28                 Midlands     45
## 1118  2021-03-01                 Midlands     40
## 1119  2021-03-02                 Midlands     29
## 1120  2021-03-03                 Midlands     38
## 1121  2021-03-04                 Midlands     31
## 1122  2021-03-05                 Midlands     32
## 1123  2021-03-06                 Midlands     20
## 1124  2021-03-07                 Midlands     15
## 1125  2021-03-08                 Midlands     30
## 1126  2021-03-09                 Midlands     22
## 1127  2021-03-10                 Midlands     20
## 1128  2021-03-11                 Midlands      3
## 1129  2020-03-01 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1130  2020-03-02 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1131  2020-03-03 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1132  2020-03-04 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1133  2020-03-05 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1134  2020-03-06 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1135  2020-03-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1136  2020-03-08 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1137  2020-03-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1138  2020-03-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1139  2020-03-11 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1140  2020-03-12 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1141  2020-03-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1142  2020-03-14 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1143  2020-03-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1144  2020-03-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1145  2020-03-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1146  2020-03-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1147  2020-03-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1148  2020-03-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1149  2020-03-21 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1150  2020-03-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1151  2020-03-23 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1152  2020-03-24 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1153  2020-03-25 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1154  2020-03-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1155  2020-03-27 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1156  2020-03-28 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1157  2020-03-29 North East and Yorkshire     38
## 1158  2020-03-30 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1159  2020-03-31 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1160  2020-04-01 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1161  2020-04-02 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1162  2020-04-03 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1163  2020-04-04 North East and Yorkshire    105
## 1164  2020-04-05 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1165  2020-04-06 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1166  2020-04-07 North East and Yorkshire    102
## 1167  2020-04-08 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1168  2020-04-09 North East and Yorkshire    111
## 1169  2020-04-10 North East and Yorkshire    117
## 1170  2020-04-11 North East and Yorkshire     98
## 1171  2020-04-12 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1172  2020-04-13 North East and Yorkshire     94
## 1173  2020-04-14 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1174  2020-04-15 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1175  2020-04-16 North East and Yorkshire    103
## 1176  2020-04-17 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1177  2020-04-18 North East and Yorkshire     95
## 1178  2020-04-19 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1179  2020-04-20 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1180  2020-04-21 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1181  2020-04-22 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1182  2020-04-23 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1183  2020-04-24 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1184  2020-04-25 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1185  2020-04-26 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1186  2020-04-27 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1187  2020-04-28 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1188  2020-04-29 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1189  2020-04-30 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1190  2020-05-01 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1191  2020-05-02 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1192  2020-05-03 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1193  2020-05-04 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1194  2020-05-05 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1195  2020-05-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1196  2020-05-07 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1197  2020-05-08 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1198  2020-05-09 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1199  2020-05-10 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1200  2020-05-11 North East and Yorkshire     29
## 1201  2020-05-12 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1202  2020-05-13 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1203  2020-05-14 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1204  2020-05-15 North East and Yorkshire     32
## 1205  2020-05-16 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1206  2020-05-17 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1207  2020-05-18 North East and Yorkshire     30
## 1208  2020-05-19 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1209  2020-05-20 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1210  2020-05-21 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1211  2020-05-22 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1212  2020-05-23 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1213  2020-05-24 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1214  2020-05-25 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1215  2020-05-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1216  2020-05-27 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1217  2020-05-28 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1218  2020-05-29 North East and Yorkshire     25
## 1219  2020-05-30 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1220  2020-05-31 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1221  2020-06-01 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1222  2020-06-02 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1223  2020-06-03 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1224  2020-06-04 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1225  2020-06-05 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1226  2020-06-06 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1227  2020-06-07 North East and Yorkshire     14
## 1228  2020-06-08 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1229  2020-06-09 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1230  2020-06-10 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1231  2020-06-11 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1232  2020-06-12 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1233  2020-06-13 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1234  2020-06-14 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1235  2020-06-15 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1236  2020-06-16 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1237  2020-06-17 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1238  2020-06-18 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1239  2020-06-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1240  2020-06-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1241  2020-06-21 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1242  2020-06-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1243  2020-06-23 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1244  2020-06-24 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1245  2020-06-25 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1246  2020-06-26 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1247  2020-06-27 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1248  2020-06-28 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1249  2020-06-29 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1250  2020-06-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1251  2020-07-01 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1252  2020-07-02 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1253  2020-07-03 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1254  2020-07-04 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1255  2020-07-05 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1256  2020-07-06 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1257  2020-07-07 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1258  2020-07-08 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1259  2020-07-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1260  2020-07-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1261  2020-07-11 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1262  2020-07-12 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1263  2020-07-13 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1264  2020-07-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1265  2020-07-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1266  2020-07-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1267  2020-07-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1268  2020-07-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1269  2020-07-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1270  2020-07-20 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1271  2020-07-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1272  2020-07-22 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1273  2020-07-23 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1274  2020-07-24 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1275  2020-07-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1276  2020-07-26 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1277  2020-07-27 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1278  2020-07-28 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1279  2020-07-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1280  2020-07-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1281  2020-07-31 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1282  2020-08-01 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1283  2020-08-02 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1284  2020-08-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1285  2020-08-04 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1286  2020-08-05 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1287  2020-08-06 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1288  2020-08-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1289  2020-08-08 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1290  2020-08-09 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1291  2020-08-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1292  2020-08-11 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1293  2020-08-12 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1294  2020-08-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1295  2020-08-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1296  2020-08-15 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1297  2020-08-16 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1298  2020-08-17 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1299  2020-08-18 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1300  2020-08-19 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1301  2020-08-20 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1302  2020-08-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1303  2020-08-22 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1304  2020-08-23 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1305  2020-08-24 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1306  2020-08-25 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1307  2020-08-26 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1308  2020-08-27 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1309  2020-08-28 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1310  2020-08-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1311  2020-08-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1312  2020-08-31 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1313  2020-09-01 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1314  2020-09-02 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1315  2020-09-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1316  2020-09-04 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1317  2020-09-05 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1318  2020-09-06 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1319  2020-09-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1320  2020-09-08 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1321  2020-09-09 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1322  2020-09-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1323  2020-09-11 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1324  2020-09-12 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1325  2020-09-13 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1326  2020-09-14 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1327  2020-09-15 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1328  2020-09-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1329  2020-09-17 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1330  2020-09-18 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1331  2020-09-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1332  2020-09-20 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1333  2020-09-21 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1334  2020-09-22 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1335  2020-09-23 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1336  2020-09-24 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1337  2020-09-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1338  2020-09-26 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1339  2020-09-27 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1340  2020-09-28 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1341  2020-09-29 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1342  2020-09-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1343  2020-10-01 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1344  2020-10-02 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1345  2020-10-03 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1346  2020-10-04 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1347  2020-10-05 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1348  2020-10-06 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1349  2020-10-07 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1350  2020-10-08 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1351  2020-10-09 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1352  2020-10-10 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1353  2020-10-11 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1354  2020-10-12 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1355  2020-10-13 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1356  2020-10-14 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1357  2020-10-15 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1358  2020-10-16 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1359  2020-10-17 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1360  2020-10-18 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1361  2020-10-19 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1362  2020-10-20 North East and Yorkshire     37
## 1363  2020-10-21 North East and Yorkshire     43
## 1364  2020-10-22 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1365  2020-10-23 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1366  2020-10-24 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1367  2020-10-25 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1368  2020-10-26 North East and Yorkshire     46
## 1369  2020-10-27 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1370  2020-10-28 North East and Yorkshire     39
## 1371  2020-10-29 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1372  2020-10-30 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1373  2020-10-31 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1374  2020-11-01 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1375  2020-11-02 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1376  2020-11-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1377  2020-11-04 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1378  2020-11-05 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1379  2020-11-06 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1380  2020-11-07 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1381  2020-11-08 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1382  2020-11-09 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1383  2020-11-10 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1384  2020-11-11 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1385  2020-11-12 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1386  2020-11-13 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1387  2020-11-14 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1388  2020-11-15 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1389  2020-11-16 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1390  2020-11-17 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1391  2020-11-18 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1392  2020-11-19 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1393  2020-11-20 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1394  2020-11-21 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1395  2020-11-22 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1396  2020-11-23 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1397  2020-11-24 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1398  2020-11-25 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1399  2020-11-26 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1400  2020-11-27 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1401  2020-11-28 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1402  2020-11-29 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1403  2020-11-30 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1404  2020-12-01 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1405  2020-12-02 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1406  2020-12-03 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1407  2020-12-04 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1408  2020-12-05 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1409  2020-12-06 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1410  2020-12-07 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1411  2020-12-08 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1412  2020-12-09 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1413  2020-12-10 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1414  2020-12-11 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1415  2020-12-12 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1416  2020-12-13 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1417  2020-12-14 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1418  2020-12-15 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1419  2020-12-16 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1420  2020-12-17 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1421  2020-12-18 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1422  2020-12-19 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1423  2020-12-20 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1424  2020-12-21 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1425  2020-12-22 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1426  2020-12-23 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1427  2020-12-24 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1428  2020-12-25 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1429  2020-12-26 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1430  2020-12-27 North East and Yorkshire     73
## 1431  2020-12-28 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1432  2020-12-29 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1433  2020-12-30 North East and Yorkshire     41
## 1434  2020-12-31 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1435  2021-01-01 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1436  2021-01-02 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1437  2021-01-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1438  2021-01-04 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1439  2021-01-05 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1440  2021-01-06 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1441  2021-01-07 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1442  2021-01-08 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1443  2021-01-09 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1444  2021-01-10 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1445  2021-01-11 North East and Yorkshire     82
## 1446  2021-01-12 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1447  2021-01-13 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1448  2021-01-14 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1449  2021-01-15 North East and Yorkshire     97
## 1450  2021-01-16 North East and Yorkshire     99
## 1451  2021-01-17 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1452  2021-01-18 North East and Yorkshire     82
## 1453  2021-01-19 North East and Yorkshire    104
## 1454  2021-01-20 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1455  2021-01-21 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1456  2021-01-22 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1457  2021-01-23 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1458  2021-01-24 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1459  2021-01-25 North East and Yorkshire     79
## 1460  2021-01-26 North East and Yorkshire     73
## 1461  2021-01-27 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1462  2021-01-28 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1463  2021-01-29 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1464  2021-01-30 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1465  2021-01-31 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1466  2021-02-01 North East and Yorkshire     79
## 1467  2021-02-02 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1468  2021-02-03 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1469  2021-02-04 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1470  2021-02-05 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1471  2021-02-06 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1472  2021-02-07 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1473  2021-02-08 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1474  2021-02-09 North East and Yorkshire     53
## 1475  2021-02-10 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1476  2021-02-11 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1477  2021-02-12 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1478  2021-02-13 North East and Yorkshire     53
## 1479  2021-02-14 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1480  2021-02-15 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1481  2021-02-16 North East and Yorkshire     46
## 1482  2021-02-17 North East and Yorkshire     47
## 1483  2021-02-18 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1484  2021-02-19 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1485  2021-02-20 North East and Yorkshire     37
## 1486  2021-02-21 North East and Yorkshire     39
## 1487  2021-02-22 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1488  2021-02-23 North East and Yorkshire     36
## 1489  2021-02-24 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1490  2021-02-25 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1491  2021-02-26 North East and Yorkshire     25
## 1492  2021-02-27 North East and Yorkshire     32
## 1493  2021-02-28 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1494  2021-03-01 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1495  2021-03-02 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1496  2021-03-03 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1497  2021-03-04 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1498  2021-03-05 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1499  2021-03-06 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1500  2021-03-07 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1501  2021-03-08 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1502  2021-03-09 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1503  2021-03-10 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1504  2021-03-11 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1505  2020-03-01               North West      0
## 1506  2020-03-02               North West      0
## 1507  2020-03-03               North West      0
## 1508  2020-03-04               North West      0
## 1509  2020-03-05               North West      1
## 1510  2020-03-06               North West      0
## 1511  2020-03-07               North West      0
## 1512  2020-03-08               North West      1
## 1513  2020-03-09               North West      0
## 1514  2020-03-10               North West      0
## 1515  2020-03-11               North West      0
## 1516  2020-03-12               North West      2
## 1517  2020-03-13               North West      3
## 1518  2020-03-14               North West      1
## 1519  2020-03-15               North West      4
## 1520  2020-03-16               North West      2
## 1521  2020-03-17               North West      4
## 1522  2020-03-18               North West      6
## 1523  2020-03-19               North West      7
## 1524  2020-03-20               North West     10
## 1525  2020-03-21               North West     11
## 1526  2020-03-22               North West     13
## 1527  2020-03-23               North West     15
## 1528  2020-03-24               North West     21
## 1529  2020-03-25               North West     21
## 1530  2020-03-26               North West     29
## 1531  2020-03-27               North West     36
## 1532  2020-03-28               North West     28
## 1533  2020-03-29               North West     46
## 1534  2020-03-30               North West     67
## 1535  2020-03-31               North West     52
## 1536  2020-04-01               North West     86
## 1537  2020-04-02               North West     96
## 1538  2020-04-03               North West     95
## 1539  2020-04-04               North West     98
## 1540  2020-04-05               North West    102
## 1541  2020-04-06               North West    100
## 1542  2020-04-07               North West    136
## 1543  2020-04-08               North West    127
## 1544  2020-04-09               North West    119
## 1545  2020-04-10               North West    117
## 1546  2020-04-11               North West    138
## 1547  2020-04-12               North West    125
## 1548  2020-04-13               North West    130
## 1549  2020-04-14               North West    130
## 1550  2020-04-15               North West    114
## 1551  2020-04-16               North West    135
## 1552  2020-04-17               North West     98
## 1553  2020-04-18               North West    114
## 1554  2020-04-19               North West     71
## 1555  2020-04-20               North West     83
## 1556  2020-04-21               North West     76
## 1557  2020-04-22               North West     87
## 1558  2020-04-23               North West     85
## 1559  2020-04-24               North West     67
## 1560  2020-04-25               North West     67
## 1561  2020-04-26               North West     55
## 1562  2020-04-27               North West     54
## 1563  2020-04-28               North West     57
## 1564  2020-04-29               North West     64
## 1565  2020-04-30               North West     60
## 1566  2020-05-01               North West     45
## 1567  2020-05-02               North West     56
## 1568  2020-05-03               North West     55
## 1569  2020-05-04               North West     48
## 1570  2020-05-05               North West     49
## 1571  2020-05-06               North West     44
## 1572  2020-05-07               North West     50
## 1573  2020-05-08               North West     43
## 1574  2020-05-09               North West     31
## 1575  2020-05-10               North West     42
## 1576  2020-05-11               North West     35
## 1577  2020-05-12               North West     38
## 1578  2020-05-13               North West     25
## 1579  2020-05-14               North West     26
## 1580  2020-05-15               North West     33
## 1581  2020-05-16               North West     32
## 1582  2020-05-17               North West     24
## 1583  2020-05-18               North West     31
## 1584  2020-05-19               North West     35
## 1585  2020-05-20               North West     27
## 1586  2020-05-21               North West     28
## 1587  2020-05-22               North West     26
## 1588  2020-05-23               North West     31
## 1589  2020-05-24               North West     26
## 1590  2020-05-25               North West     31
## 1591  2020-05-26               North West     27
## 1592  2020-05-27               North West     27
## 1593  2020-05-28               North West     28
## 1594  2020-05-29               North West     20
## 1595  2020-05-30               North West     19
## 1596  2020-05-31               North West     13
## 1597  2020-06-01               North West     12
## 1598  2020-06-02               North West     27
## 1599  2020-06-03               North West     22
## 1600  2020-06-04               North West     22
## 1601  2020-06-05               North West     16
## 1602  2020-06-06               North West     26
## 1603  2020-06-07               North West     20
## 1604  2020-06-08               North West     23
## 1605  2020-06-09               North West     17
## 1606  2020-06-10               North West     16
## 1607  2020-06-11               North West     16
## 1608  2020-06-12               North West     11
## 1609  2020-06-13               North West     10
## 1610  2020-06-14               North West     15
## 1611  2020-06-15               North West     16
## 1612  2020-06-16               North West     16
## 1613  2020-06-17               North West     13
## 1614  2020-06-18               North West     14
## 1615  2020-06-19               North West      7
## 1616  2020-06-20               North West     11
## 1617  2020-06-21               North West      8
## 1618  2020-06-22               North West     11
## 1619  2020-06-23               North West     13
## 1620  2020-06-24               North West     13
## 1621  2020-06-25               North West     15
## 1622  2020-06-26               North West      6
## 1623  2020-06-27               North West      7
## 1624  2020-06-28               North West      9
## 1625  2020-06-29               North West      9
## 1626  2020-06-30               North West      7
## 1627  2020-07-01               North West      3
## 1628  2020-07-02               North West      6
## 1629  2020-07-03               North West      7
## 1630  2020-07-04               North West      4
## 1631  2020-07-05               North West      6
## 1632  2020-07-06               North West      9
## 1633  2020-07-07               North West      8
## 1634  2020-07-08               North West      5
## 1635  2020-07-09               North West     10
## 1636  2020-07-10               North West      2
## 1637  2020-07-11               North West      5
## 1638  2020-07-12               North West      0
## 1639  2020-07-13               North West      6
## 1640  2020-07-14               North West      4
## 1641  2020-07-15               North West      5
## 1642  2020-07-16               North West      2
## 1643  2020-07-17               North West      4
## 1644  2020-07-18               North West      5
## 1645  2020-07-19               North West      3
## 1646  2020-07-20               North West      0
## 1647  2020-07-21               North West      2
## 1648  2020-07-22               North West      3
## 1649  2020-07-23               North West      3
## 1650  2020-07-24               North West      1
## 1651  2020-07-25               North West      1
## 1652  2020-07-26               North West      3
## 1653  2020-07-27               North West      1
## 1654  2020-07-28               North West      1
## 1655  2020-07-29               North West      2
## 1656  2020-07-30               North West      2
## 1657  2020-07-31               North West      0
## 1658  2020-08-01               North West      2
## 1659  2020-08-02               North West      1
## 1660  2020-08-03               North West      8
## 1661  2020-08-04               North West      3
## 1662  2020-08-05               North West      2
## 1663  2020-08-06               North West      2
## 1664  2020-08-07               North West      2
## 1665  2020-08-08               North West      2
## 1666  2020-08-09               North West      3
## 1667  2020-08-10               North West      2
## 1668  2020-08-11               North West      3
## 1669  2020-08-12               North West      0
## 1670  2020-08-13               North West      2
## 1671  2020-08-14               North West      2
## 1672  2020-08-15               North West      6
## 1673  2020-08-16               North West      2
## 1674  2020-08-17               North West      1
## 1675  2020-08-18               North West      2
## 1676  2020-08-19               North West      1
## 1677  2020-08-20               North West      1
## 1678  2020-08-21               North West      4
## 1679  2020-08-22               North West      3
## 1680  2020-08-23               North West      5
## 1681  2020-08-24               North West      4
## 1682  2020-08-25               North West      3
## 1683  2020-08-26               North West      4
## 1684  2020-08-27               North West      1
## 1685  2020-08-28               North West      2
## 1686  2020-08-29               North West      0
## 1687  2020-08-30               North West      2
## 1688  2020-08-31               North West      3
## 1689  2020-09-01               North West      0
## 1690  2020-09-02               North West      2
## 1691  2020-09-03               North West      1
## 1692  2020-09-04               North West      3
## 1693  2020-09-05               North West      6
## 1694  2020-09-06               North West      1
## 1695  2020-09-07               North West      8
## 1696  2020-09-08               North West      6
## 1697  2020-09-09               North West      5
## 1698  2020-09-10               North West      5
## 1699  2020-09-11               North West      1
## 1700  2020-09-12               North West      4
## 1701  2020-09-13               North West      2
## 1702  2020-09-14               North West      4
## 1703  2020-09-15               North West      4
## 1704  2020-09-16               North West      6
## 1705  2020-09-17               North West      7
## 1706  2020-09-18               North West      6
## 1707  2020-09-19               North West      3
## 1708  2020-09-20               North West      2
## 1709  2020-09-21               North West      2
## 1710  2020-09-22               North West      9
## 1711  2020-09-23               North West     14
## 1712  2020-09-24               North West     10
## 1713  2020-09-25               North West      8
## 1714  2020-09-26               North West     14
## 1715  2020-09-27               North West     11
## 1716  2020-09-28               North West     15
## 1717  2020-09-29               North West     12
## 1718  2020-09-30               North West     17
## 1719  2020-10-01               North West     17
## 1720  2020-10-02               North West     20
## 1721  2020-10-03               North West     15
## 1722  2020-10-04               North West     15
## 1723  2020-10-05               North West     15
## 1724  2020-10-06               North West     20
## 1725  2020-10-07               North West     20
## 1726  2020-10-08               North West     22
## 1727  2020-10-09               North West     24
## 1728  2020-10-10               North West     31
## 1729  2020-10-11               North West     31
## 1730  2020-10-12               North West     35
## 1731  2020-10-13               North West     26
## 1732  2020-10-14               North West     35
## 1733  2020-10-15               North West     36
## 1734  2020-10-16               North West     34
## 1735  2020-10-17               North West     52
## 1736  2020-10-18               North West     40
## 1737  2020-10-19               North West     43
## 1738  2020-10-20               North West     48
## 1739  2020-10-21               North West     51
## 1740  2020-10-22               North West     49
## 1741  2020-10-23               North West     50
## 1742  2020-10-24               North West     51
## 1743  2020-10-25               North West     63
## 1744  2020-10-26               North West     53
## 1745  2020-10-27               North West     49
## 1746  2020-10-28               North West     57
## 1747  2020-10-29               North West     74
## 1748  2020-10-30               North West     73
## 1749  2020-10-31               North West     63
## 1750  2020-11-01               North West     76
## 1751  2020-11-02               North West     65
## 1752  2020-11-03               North West     77
## 1753  2020-11-04               North West     64
## 1754  2020-11-05               North West     67
## 1755  2020-11-06               North West     76
## 1756  2020-11-07               North West     79
## 1757  2020-11-08               North West     83
## 1758  2020-11-09               North West     82
## 1759  2020-11-10               North West     68
## 1760  2020-11-11               North West     62
## 1761  2020-11-12               North West     64
## 1762  2020-11-13               North West     81
## 1763  2020-11-14               North West     61
## 1764  2020-11-15               North West     75
## 1765  2020-11-16               North West     74
## 1766  2020-11-17               North West     73
## 1767  2020-11-18               North West     71
## 1768  2020-11-19               North West     67
## 1769  2020-11-20               North West     52
## 1770  2020-11-21               North West     68
## 1771  2020-11-22               North West     52
## 1772  2020-11-23               North West     54
## 1773  2020-11-24               North West     64
## 1774  2020-11-25               North West     65
## 1775  2020-11-26               North West     53
## 1776  2020-11-27               North West     51
## 1777  2020-11-28               North West     46
## 1778  2020-11-29               North West     54
## 1779  2020-11-30               North West     48
## 1780  2020-12-01               North West     53
## 1781  2020-12-02               North West     48
## 1782  2020-12-03               North West     47
## 1783  2020-12-04               North West     48
## 1784  2020-12-05               North West     37
## 1785  2020-12-06               North West     43
## 1786  2020-12-07               North West     50
## 1787  2020-12-08               North West     49
## 1788  2020-12-09               North West     48
## 1789  2020-12-10               North West     49
## 1790  2020-12-11               North West     41
## 1791  2020-12-12               North West     48
## 1792  2020-12-13               North West     42
## 1793  2020-12-14               North West     51
## 1794  2020-12-15               North West     34
## 1795  2020-12-16               North West     41
## 1796  2020-12-17               North West     26
## 1797  2020-12-18               North West     47
## 1798  2020-12-19               North West     45
## 1799  2020-12-20               North West     37
## 1800  2020-12-21               North West     51
## 1801  2020-12-22               North West     52
## 1802  2020-12-23               North West     50
## 1803  2020-12-24               North West     58
## 1804  2020-12-25               North West     52
## 1805  2020-12-26               North West     56
## 1806  2020-12-27               North West     50
## 1807  2020-12-28               North West     48
## 1808  2020-12-29               North West     49
## 1809  2020-12-30               North West     49
## 1810  2020-12-31               North West     62
## 1811  2021-01-01               North West     54
## 1812  2021-01-02               North West     55
## 1813  2021-01-03               North West     57
## 1814  2021-01-04               North West     51
## 1815  2021-01-05               North West     56
## 1816  2021-01-06               North West     69
## 1817  2021-01-07               North West     61
## 1818  2021-01-08               North West     65
## 1819  2021-01-09               North West     70
## 1820  2021-01-10               North West     66
## 1821  2021-01-11               North West     79
## 1822  2021-01-12               North West     66
## 1823  2021-01-13               North West     85
## 1824  2021-01-14               North West     92
## 1825  2021-01-15               North West     87
## 1826  2021-01-16               North West     83
## 1827  2021-01-17               North West     81
## 1828  2021-01-18               North West     92
## 1829  2021-01-19               North West     92
## 1830  2021-01-20               North West     89
## 1831  2021-01-21               North West     85
## 1832  2021-01-22               North West    110
## 1833  2021-01-23               North West    103
## 1834  2021-01-24               North West     95
## 1835  2021-01-25               North West     86
## 1836  2021-01-26               North West    102
## 1837  2021-01-27               North West    104
## 1838  2021-01-28               North West    102
## 1839  2021-01-29               North West     99
## 1840  2021-01-30               North West     77
## 1841  2021-01-31               North West     85
## 1842  2021-02-01               North West     96
## 1843  2021-02-02               North West     82
## 1844  2021-02-03               North West     71
## 1845  2021-02-04               North West     79
## 1846  2021-02-05               North West     67
## 1847  2021-02-06               North West     62
## 1848  2021-02-07               North West     53
## 1849  2021-02-08               North West     73
## 1850  2021-02-09               North West     69
## 1851  2021-02-10               North West     72
## 1852  2021-02-11               North West     67
## 1853  2021-02-12               North West     67
## 1854  2021-02-13               North West     62
## 1855  2021-02-14               North West     50
## 1856  2021-02-15               North West     56
## 1857  2021-02-16               North West     55
## 1858  2021-02-17               North West     55
## 1859  2021-02-18               North West     52
## 1860  2021-02-19               North West     40
## 1861  2021-02-20               North West     33
## 1862  2021-02-21               North West     36
## 1863  2021-02-22               North West     25
## 1864  2021-02-23               North West     35
## 1865  2021-02-24               North West     34
## 1866  2021-02-25               North West     22
## 1867  2021-02-26               North West     38
## 1868  2021-02-27               North West     26
## 1869  2021-02-28               North West     32
## 1870  2021-03-01               North West     31
## 1871  2021-03-02               North West     13
## 1872  2021-03-03               North West     21
## 1873  2021-03-04               North West     12
## 1874  2021-03-05               North West     25
## 1875  2021-03-06               North West     13
## 1876  2021-03-07               North West     22
## 1877  2021-03-08               North West     16
## 1878  2021-03-09               North West     13
## 1879  2021-03-10               North West      9
## 1880  2021-03-11               North West      4
## 1881  2020-03-01               South East      0
## 1882  2020-03-02               South East      0
## 1883  2020-03-03               South East      1
## 1884  2020-03-04               South East      0
## 1885  2020-03-05               South East      1
## 1886  2020-03-06               South East      0
## 1887  2020-03-07               South East      0
## 1888  2020-03-08               South East      1
## 1889  2020-03-09               South East      1
## 1890  2020-03-10               South East      1
## 1891  2020-03-11               South East      1
## 1892  2020-03-12               South East      0
## 1893  2020-03-13               South East      1
## 1894  2020-03-14               South East      1
## 1895  2020-03-15               South East      5
## 1896  2020-03-16               South East      8
## 1897  2020-03-17               South East      7
## 1898  2020-03-18               South East     10
## 1899  2020-03-19               South East      9
## 1900  2020-03-20               South East     13
## 1901  2020-03-21               South East      7
## 1902  2020-03-22               South East     25
## 1903  2020-03-23               South East     20
## 1904  2020-03-24               South East     22
## 1905  2020-03-25               South East     29
## 1906  2020-03-26               South East     35
## 1907  2020-03-27               South East     36
## 1908  2020-03-28               South East     36
## 1909  2020-03-29               South East     55
## 1910  2020-03-30               South East     58
## 1911  2020-03-31               South East     65
## 1912  2020-04-01               South East     66
## 1913  2020-04-02               South East     55
## 1914  2020-04-03               South East     72
## 1915  2020-04-04               South East     80
## 1916  2020-04-05               South East     82
## 1917  2020-04-06               South East     88
## 1918  2020-04-07               South East    100
## 1919  2020-04-08               South East     83
## 1920  2020-04-09               South East    104
## 1921  2020-04-10               South East     88
## 1922  2020-04-11               South East     88
## 1923  2020-04-12               South East     88
## 1924  2020-04-13               South East     84
## 1925  2020-04-14               South East     65
## 1926  2020-04-15               South East     72
## 1927  2020-04-16               South East     56
## 1928  2020-04-17               South East     86
## 1929  2020-04-18               South East     57
## 1930  2020-04-19               South East     70
## 1931  2020-04-20               South East     87
## 1932  2020-04-21               South East     51
## 1933  2020-04-22               South East     54
## 1934  2020-04-23               South East     57
## 1935  2020-04-24               South East     64
## 1936  2020-04-25               South East     51
## 1937  2020-04-26               South East     51
## 1938  2020-04-27               South East     41
## 1939  2020-04-28               South East     40
## 1940  2020-04-29               South East     47
## 1941  2020-04-30               South East     29
## 1942  2020-05-01               South East     37
## 1943  2020-05-02               South East     36
## 1944  2020-05-03               South East     17
## 1945  2020-05-04               South East     35
## 1946  2020-05-05               South East     29
## 1947  2020-05-06               South East     25
## 1948  2020-05-07               South East     27
## 1949  2020-05-08               South East     26
## 1950  2020-05-09               South East     28
## 1951  2020-05-10               South East     19
## 1952  2020-05-11               South East     25
## 1953  2020-05-12               South East     27
## 1954  2020-05-13               South East     18
## 1955  2020-05-14               South East     32
## 1956  2020-05-15               South East     25
## 1957  2020-05-16               South East     22
## 1958  2020-05-17               South East     18
## 1959  2020-05-18               South East     23
## 1960  2020-05-19               South East     12
## 1961  2020-05-20               South East     22
## 1962  2020-05-21               South East     15
## 1963  2020-05-22               South East     17
## 1964  2020-05-23               South East     21
## 1965  2020-05-24               South East     17
## 1966  2020-05-25               South East     13
## 1967  2020-05-26               South East     19
## 1968  2020-05-27               South East     19
## 1969  2020-05-28               South East     12
## 1970  2020-05-29               South East     22
## 1971  2020-05-30               South East      8
## 1972  2020-05-31               South East     12
## 1973  2020-06-01               South East     11
## 1974  2020-06-02               South East     13
## 1975  2020-06-03               South East     18
## 1976  2020-06-04               South East     11
## 1977  2020-06-05               South East     11
## 1978  2020-06-06               South East     10
## 1979  2020-06-07               South East     12
## 1980  2020-06-08               South East      8
## 1981  2020-06-09               South East     11
## 1982  2020-06-10               South East     11
## 1983  2020-06-11               South East      5
## 1984  2020-06-12               South East      6
## 1985  2020-06-13               South East      7
## 1986  2020-06-14               South East      7
## 1987  2020-06-15               South East      8
## 1988  2020-06-16               South East     14
## 1989  2020-06-17               South East     10
## 1990  2020-06-18               South East      4
## 1991  2020-06-19               South East      7
## 1992  2020-06-20               South East      5
## 1993  2020-06-21               South East      3
## 1994  2020-06-22               South East      2
## 1995  2020-06-23               South East      9
## 1996  2020-06-24               South East      7
## 1997  2020-06-25               South East      5
## 1998  2020-06-26               South East      8
## 1999  2020-06-27               South East      9
## 2000  2020-06-28               South East      6
## 2001  2020-06-29               South East      5
## 2002  2020-06-30               South East      5
## 2003  2020-07-01               South East      2
## 2004  2020-07-02               South East      8
## 2005  2020-07-03               South East      3
## 2006  2020-07-04               South East      6
## 2007  2020-07-05               South East      5
## 2008  2020-07-06               South East      4
## 2009  2020-07-07               South East      6
## 2010  2020-07-08               South East      3
## 2011  2020-07-09               South East      7
## 2012  2020-07-10               South East      3
## 2013  2020-07-11               South East      4
## 2014  2020-07-12               South East      5
## 2015  2020-07-13               South East      5
## 2016  2020-07-14               South East      5
## 2017  2020-07-15               South East      6
## 2018  2020-07-16               South East      3
## 2019  2020-07-17               South East      1
## 2020  2020-07-18               South East      5
## 2021  2020-07-19               South East      2
## 2022  2020-07-20               South East      6
## 2023  2020-07-21               South East      4
## 2024  2020-07-22               South East      2
## 2025  2020-07-23               South East      3
## 2026  2020-07-24               South East      1
## 2027  2020-07-25               South East      1
## 2028  2020-07-26               South East      3
## 2029  2020-07-27               South East      1
## 2030  2020-07-28               South East      3
## 2031  2020-07-29               South East      2
## 2032  2020-07-30               South East      3
## 2033  2020-07-31               South East      1
## 2034  2020-08-01               South East      2
## 2035  2020-08-02               South East      4
## 2036  2020-08-03               South East      0
## 2037  2020-08-04               South East      0
## 2038  2020-08-05               South East      0
## 2039  2020-08-06               South East      2
## 2040  2020-08-07               South East      0
## 2041  2020-08-08               South East      2
## 2042  2020-08-09               South East      0
## 2043  2020-08-10               South East      2
## 2044  2020-08-11               South East      1
## 2045  2020-08-12               South East      1
## 2046  2020-08-13               South East      0
## 2047  2020-08-14               South East      0
## 2048  2020-08-15               South East      2
## 2049  2020-08-16               South East      1
## 2050  2020-08-17               South East      0
## 2051  2020-08-18               South East      2
## 2052  2020-08-19               South East      1
## 2053  2020-08-20               South East      0
## 2054  2020-08-21               South East      0
## 2055  2020-08-22               South East      0
## 2056  2020-08-23               South East      1
## 2057  2020-08-24               South East      0
## 2058  2020-08-25               South East      1
## 2059  2020-08-26               South East      0
## 2060  2020-08-27               South East      1
## 2061  2020-08-28               South East      2
## 2062  2020-08-29               South East      1
## 2063  2020-08-30               South East      0
## 2064  2020-08-31               South East      2
## 2065  2020-09-01               South East      1
## 2066  2020-09-02               South East      1
## 2067  2020-09-03               South East      0
## 2068  2020-09-04               South East      1
## 2069  2020-09-05               South East      0
## 2070  2020-09-06               South East      1
## 2071  2020-09-07               South East      0
## 2072  2020-09-08               South East      0
## 2073  2020-09-09               South East      0
## 2074  2020-09-10               South East      1
## 2075  2020-09-11               South East      1
## 2076  2020-09-12               South East      0
## 2077  2020-09-13               South East      3
## 2078  2020-09-14               South East      1
## 2079  2020-09-15               South East      2
## 2080  2020-09-16               South East      2
## 2081  2020-09-17               South East      3
## 2082  2020-09-18               South East      1
## 2083  2020-09-19               South East      1
## 2084  2020-09-20               South East      0
## 2085  2020-09-21               South East      3
## 2086  2020-09-22               South East      0
## 2087  2020-09-23               South East      2
## 2088  2020-09-24               South East      1
## 2089  2020-09-25               South East      3
## 2090  2020-09-26               South East      2
## 2091  2020-09-27               South East      2
## 2092  2020-09-28               South East      6
## 2093  2020-09-29               South East      3
## 2094  2020-09-30               South East      4
## 2095  2020-10-01               South East      4
## 2096  2020-10-02               South East      2
## 2097  2020-10-03               South East      1
## 2098  2020-10-04               South East      1
## 2099  2020-10-05               South East      2
## 2100  2020-10-06               South East      1
## 2101  2020-10-07               South East      4
## 2102  2020-10-08               South East      1
## 2103  2020-10-09               South East      1
## 2104  2020-10-10               South East      3
## 2105  2020-10-11               South East      3
## 2106  2020-10-12               South East      4
## 2107  2020-10-13               South East      2
## 2108  2020-10-14               South East      2
## 2109  2020-10-15               South East      3
## 2110  2020-10-16               South East      2
## 2111  2020-10-17               South East      3
## 2112  2020-10-18               South East      4
## 2113  2020-10-19               South East      7
## 2114  2020-10-20               South East      8
## 2115  2020-10-21               South East      9
## 2116  2020-10-22               South East      5
## 2117  2020-10-23               South East      7
## 2118  2020-10-24               South East      5
## 2119  2020-10-25               South East      9
## 2120  2020-10-26               South East     13
## 2121  2020-10-27               South East     10
## 2122  2020-10-28               South East     10
## 2123  2020-10-29               South East      7
## 2124  2020-10-30               South East      6
## 2125  2020-10-31               South East     15
## 2126  2020-11-01               South East     18
## 2127  2020-11-02               South East     13
## 2128  2020-11-03               South East     16
## 2129  2020-11-04               South East     10
## 2130  2020-11-05               South East     10
## 2131  2020-11-06               South East     16
## 2132  2020-11-07               South East     17
## 2133  2020-11-08               South East     18
## 2134  2020-11-09               South East     19
## 2135  2020-11-10               South East     20
## 2136  2020-11-11               South East     20
## 2137  2020-11-12               South East     20
## 2138  2020-11-13               South East     12
## 2139  2020-11-14               South East     24
## 2140  2020-11-15               South East     25
## 2141  2020-11-16               South East     22
## 2142  2020-11-17               South East     23
## 2143  2020-11-18               South East     26
## 2144  2020-11-19               South East     21
## 2145  2020-11-20               South East     18
## 2146  2020-11-21               South East     23
## 2147  2020-11-22               South East     30
## 2148  2020-11-23               South East     29
## 2149  2020-11-24               South East     26
## 2150  2020-11-25               South East     42
## 2151  2020-11-26               South East     30
## 2152  2020-11-27               South East     31
## 2153  2020-11-28               South East     24
## 2154  2020-11-29               South East     37
## 2155  2020-11-30               South East     23
## 2156  2020-12-01               South East     29
## 2157  2020-12-02               South East     33
## 2158  2020-12-03               South East     36
## 2159  2020-12-04               South East     41
## 2160  2020-12-05               South East     37
## 2161  2020-12-06               South East     32
## 2162  2020-12-07               South East     25
## 2163  2020-12-08               South East     43
## 2164  2020-12-09               South East     44
## 2165  2020-12-10               South East     38
## 2166  2020-12-11               South East     49
## 2167  2020-12-12               South East     40
## 2168  2020-12-13               South East     41
## 2169  2020-12-14               South East     38
## 2170  2020-12-15               South East     51
## 2171  2020-12-16               South East     45
## 2172  2020-12-17               South East     54
## 2173  2020-12-18               South East     48
## 2174  2020-12-19               South East     43
## 2175  2020-12-20               South East     57
## 2176  2020-12-21               South East     66
## 2177  2020-12-22               South East     62
## 2178  2020-12-23               South East     70
## 2179  2020-12-24               South East     56
## 2180  2020-12-25               South East     71
## 2181  2020-12-26               South East     75
## 2182  2020-12-27               South East     77
## 2183  2020-12-28               South East     81
## 2184  2020-12-29               South East     78
## 2185  2020-12-30               South East     92
## 2186  2020-12-31               South East     93
## 2187  2021-01-01               South East     60
## 2188  2021-01-02               South East     95
## 2189  2021-01-03               South East     79
## 2190  2021-01-04               South East    106
## 2191  2021-01-05               South East    107
## 2192  2021-01-06               South East    121
## 2193  2021-01-07               South East    116
## 2194  2021-01-08               South East    125
## 2195  2021-01-09               South East    115
## 2196  2021-01-10               South East    126
## 2197  2021-01-11               South East    128
## 2198  2021-01-12               South East    170
## 2199  2021-01-13               South East    134
## 2200  2021-01-14               South East    141
## 2201  2021-01-15               South East    126
## 2202  2021-01-16               South East    154
## 2203  2021-01-17               South East    165
## 2204  2021-01-18               South East    151
## 2205  2021-01-19               South East    154
## 2206  2021-01-20               South East    134
## 2207  2021-01-21               South East    133
## 2208  2021-01-22               South East    131
## 2209  2021-01-23               South East    122
## 2210  2021-01-24               South East    116
## 2211  2021-01-25               South East    114
## 2212  2021-01-26               South East    130
## 2213  2021-01-27               South East    113
## 2214  2021-01-28               South East    128
## 2215  2021-01-29               South East    109
## 2216  2021-01-30               South East     94
## 2217  2021-01-31               South East     94
## 2218  2021-02-01               South East     95
## 2219  2021-02-02               South East     83
## 2220  2021-02-03               South East     95
## 2221  2021-02-04               South East     58
## 2222  2021-02-05               South East     68
## 2223  2021-02-06               South East     73
## 2224  2021-02-07               South East     63
## 2225  2021-02-08               South East     67
## 2226  2021-02-09               South East     37
## 2227  2021-02-10               South East     46
## 2228  2021-02-11               South East     65
## 2229  2021-02-12               South East     43
## 2230  2021-02-13               South East     35
## 2231  2021-02-14               South East     43
## 2232  2021-02-15               South East     49
## 2233  2021-02-16               South East     38
## 2234  2021-02-17               South East     35
## 2235  2021-02-18               South East     40
## 2236  2021-02-19               South East     39
## 2237  2021-02-20               South East     32
## 2238  2021-02-21               South East     35
## 2239  2021-02-22               South East     31
## 2240  2021-02-23               South East     29
## 2241  2021-02-24               South East     27
## 2242  2021-02-25               South East     26
## 2243  2021-02-26               South East     21
## 2244  2021-02-27               South East     24
## 2245  2021-02-28               South East     14
## 2246  2021-03-01               South East     21
## 2247  2021-03-02               South East     20
## 2248  2021-03-03               South East     16
## 2249  2021-03-04               South East     24
## 2250  2021-03-05               South East     17
## 2251  2021-03-06               South East     11
## 2252  2021-03-07               South East      8
## 2253  2021-03-08               South East      9
## 2254  2021-03-09               South East     12
## 2255  2021-03-10               South East      8
## 2256  2021-03-11               South East      1
## 2257  2020-03-01               South West      0
## 2258  2020-03-02               South West      0
## 2259  2020-03-03               South West      0
## 2260  2020-03-04               South West      0
## 2261  2020-03-05               South West      0
## 2262  2020-03-06               South West      0
## 2263  2020-03-07               South West      0
## 2264  2020-03-08               South West      0
## 2265  2020-03-09               South West      0
## 2266  2020-03-10               South West      0
## 2267  2020-03-11               South West      1
## 2268  2020-03-12               South West      0
## 2269  2020-03-13               South West      0
## 2270  2020-03-14               South West      1
## 2271  2020-03-15               South West      0
## 2272  2020-03-16               South West      0
## 2273  2020-03-17               South West      2
## 2274  2020-03-18               South West      2
## 2275  2020-03-19               South West      4
## 2276  2020-03-20               South West      3
## 2277  2020-03-21               South West      7
## 2278  2020-03-22               South West      7
## 2279  2020-03-23               South West      8
## 2280  2020-03-24               South West      7
## 2281  2020-03-25               South West      9
## 2282  2020-03-26               South West     11
## 2283  2020-03-27               South West     13
## 2284  2020-03-28               South West     21
## 2285  2020-03-29               South West     18
## 2286  2020-03-30               South West     23
## 2287  2020-03-31               South West     23
## 2288  2020-04-01               South West     21
## 2289  2020-04-02               South West     23
## 2290  2020-04-03               South West     31
## 2291  2020-04-04               South West     42
## 2292  2020-04-05               South West     32
## 2293  2020-04-06               South West     34
## 2294  2020-04-07               South West     39
## 2295  2020-04-08               South West     47
## 2296  2020-04-09               South West     24
## 2297  2020-04-10               South West     46
## 2298  2020-04-11               South West     43
## 2299  2020-04-12               South West     23
## 2300  2020-04-13               South West     28
## 2301  2020-04-14               South West     24
## 2302  2020-04-15               South West     32
## 2303  2020-04-16               South West     29
## 2304  2020-04-17               South West     33
## 2305  2020-04-18               South West     25
## 2306  2020-04-19               South West     31
## 2307  2020-04-20               South West     26
## 2308  2020-04-21               South West     26
## 2309  2020-04-22               South West     23
## 2310  2020-04-23               South West     17
## 2311  2020-04-24               South West     19
## 2312  2020-04-25               South West     15
## 2313  2020-04-26               South West     27
## 2314  2020-04-27               South West     13
## 2315  2020-04-28               South West     17
## 2316  2020-04-29               South West     15
## 2317  2020-04-30               South West     26
## 2318  2020-05-01               South West      6
## 2319  2020-05-02               South West      7
## 2320  2020-05-03               South West     10
## 2321  2020-05-04               South West     17
## 2322  2020-05-05               South West     14
## 2323  2020-05-06               South West     19
## 2324  2020-05-07               South West     16
## 2325  2020-05-08               South West      6
## 2326  2020-05-09               South West     11
## 2327  2020-05-10               South West      5
## 2328  2020-05-11               South West      8
## 2329  2020-05-12               South West      7
## 2330  2020-05-13               South West      7
## 2331  2020-05-14               South West      6
## 2332  2020-05-15               South West      4
## 2333  2020-05-16               South West      4
## 2334  2020-05-17               South West      6
## 2335  2020-05-18               South West      4
## 2336  2020-05-19               South West      6
## 2337  2020-05-20               South West      1
## 2338  2020-05-21               South West      9
## 2339  2020-05-22               South West      7
## 2340  2020-05-23               South West      6
## 2341  2020-05-24               South West      3
## 2342  2020-05-25               South West      8
## 2343  2020-05-26               South West     11
## 2344  2020-05-27               South West      5
## 2345  2020-05-28               South West     10
## 2346  2020-05-29               South West      7
## 2347  2020-05-30               South West      3
## 2348  2020-05-31               South West      2
## 2349  2020-06-01               South West      7
## 2350  2020-06-02               South West      2
## 2351  2020-06-03               South West      7
## 2352  2020-06-04               South West      2
## 2353  2020-06-05               South West      2
## 2354  2020-06-06               South West      1
## 2355  2020-06-07               South West      3
## 2356  2020-06-08               South West      3
## 2357  2020-06-09               South West      0
## 2358  2020-06-10               South West      1
## 2359  2020-06-11               South West      2
## 2360  2020-06-12               South West      2
## 2361  2020-06-13               South West      2
## 2362  2020-06-14               South West      0
## 2363  2020-06-15               South West      2
## 2364  2020-06-16               South West      2
## 2365  2020-06-17               South West      0
## 2366  2020-06-18               South West      0
## 2367  2020-06-19               South West      0
## 2368  2020-06-20               South West      2
## 2369  2020-06-21               South West      0
## 2370  2020-06-22               South West      1
## 2371  2020-06-23               South West      1
## 2372  2020-06-24               South West      1
## 2373  2020-06-25               South West      0
## 2374  2020-06-26               South West      3
## 2375  2020-06-27               South West      0
## 2376  2020-06-28               South West      0
## 2377  2020-06-29               South West      1
## 2378  2020-06-30               South West      0
## 2379  2020-07-01               South West      0
## 2380  2020-07-02               South West      0
## 2381  2020-07-03               South West      0
## 2382  2020-07-04               South West      0
## 2383  2020-07-05               South West      1
## 2384  2020-07-06               South West      0
## 2385  2020-07-07               South West      0
## 2386  2020-07-08               South West      2
## 2387  2020-07-09               South West      0
## 2388  2020-07-10               South West      1
## 2389  2020-07-11               South West      0
## 2390  2020-07-12               South West      0
## 2391  2020-07-13               South West      1
## 2392  2020-07-14               South West      0
## 2393  2020-07-15               South West      0
## 2394  2020-07-16               South West      0
## 2395  2020-07-17               South West      1
## 2396  2020-07-18               South West      0
## 2397  2020-07-19               South West      0
## 2398  2020-07-20               South West      0
## 2399  2020-07-21               South West      0
## 2400  2020-07-22               South West      0
## 2401  2020-07-23               South West      0
## 2402  2020-07-24               South West      0
## 2403  2020-07-25               South West      0
## 2404  2020-07-26               South West      0
## 2405  2020-07-27               South West      0
## 2406  2020-07-28               South West      0
## 2407  2020-07-29               South West      0
## 2408  2020-07-30               South West      1
## 2409  2020-07-31               South West      0
## 2410  2020-08-01               South West      0
## 2411  2020-08-02               South West      0
## 2412  2020-08-03               South West      0
## 2413  2020-08-04               South West      0
## 2414  2020-08-05               South West      0
## 2415  2020-08-06               South West      0
## 2416  2020-08-07               South West      0
## 2417  2020-08-08               South West      0
## 2418  2020-08-09               South West      0
## 2419  2020-08-10               South West      0
## 2420  2020-08-11               South West      0
## 2421  2020-08-12               South West      0
## 2422  2020-08-13               South West      0
## 2423  2020-08-14               South West      1
## 2424  2020-08-15               South West      0
## 2425  2020-08-16               South West      0
## 2426  2020-08-17               South West      2
## 2427  2020-08-18               South West      0
## 2428  2020-08-19               South West      0
## 2429  2020-08-20               South West      0
## 2430  2020-08-21               South West      0
## 2431  2020-08-22               South West      0
## 2432  2020-08-23               South West      0
## 2433  2020-08-24               South West      0
## 2434  2020-08-25               South West      1
## 2435  2020-08-26               South West      0
## 2436  2020-08-27               South West      1
## 2437  2020-08-28               South West      0
## 2438  2020-08-29               South West      0
## 2439  2020-08-30               South West      0
## 2440  2020-08-31               South West      0
## 2441  2020-09-01               South West      0
## 2442  2020-09-02               South West      0
## 2443  2020-09-03               South West      0
## 2444  2020-09-04               South West      0
## 2445  2020-09-05               South West      0
## 2446  2020-09-06               South West      0
## 2447  2020-09-07               South West      0
## 2448  2020-09-08               South West      1
## 2449  2020-09-09               South West      0
## 2450  2020-09-10               South West      0
## 2451  2020-09-11               South West      0
## 2452  2020-09-12               South West      0
## 2453  2020-09-13               South West      1
## 2454  2020-09-14               South West      0
## 2455  2020-09-15               South West      0
## 2456  2020-09-16               South West      0
## 2457  2020-09-17               South West      1
## 2458  2020-09-18               South West      0
## 2459  2020-09-19               South West      0
## 2460  2020-09-20               South West      1
## 2461  2020-09-21               South West      0
## 2462  2020-09-22               South West      0
## 2463  2020-09-23               South West      0
## 2464  2020-09-24               South West      1
## 2465  2020-09-25               South West      0
## 2466  2020-09-26               South West      0
## 2467  2020-09-27               South West      0
## 2468  2020-09-28               South West      0
## 2469  2020-09-29               South West      0
## 2470  2020-09-30               South West      0
## 2471  2020-10-01               South West      0
## 2472  2020-10-02               South West      1
## 2473  2020-10-03               South West      0
## 2474  2020-10-04               South West      0
## 2475  2020-10-05               South West      0
## 2476  2020-10-06               South West      1
## 2477  2020-10-07               South West      0
## 2478  2020-10-08               South West      1
## 2479  2020-10-09               South West      1
## 2480  2020-10-10               South West      0
## 2481  2020-10-11               South West      4
## 2482  2020-10-12               South West      2
## 2483  2020-10-13               South West      0
## 2484  2020-10-14               South West      3
## 2485  2020-10-15               South West      1
## 2486  2020-10-16               South West      2
## 2487  2020-10-17               South West      8
## 2488  2020-10-18               South West      2
## 2489  2020-10-19               South West      2
## 2490  2020-10-20               South West      3
## 2491  2020-10-21               South West      6
## 2492  2020-10-22               South West      6
## 2493  2020-10-23               South West      5
## 2494  2020-10-24               South West      5
## 2495  2020-10-25               South West      5
## 2496  2020-10-26               South West      7
## 2497  2020-10-27               South West      6
## 2498  2020-10-28               South West      8
## 2499  2020-10-29               South West     11
## 2500  2020-10-30               South West      8
## 2501  2020-10-31               South West      5
## 2502  2020-11-01               South West      5
## 2503  2020-11-02               South West     11
## 2504  2020-11-03               South West      7
## 2505  2020-11-04               South West      8
## 2506  2020-11-05               South West      5
## 2507  2020-11-06               South West     11
## 2508  2020-11-07               South West     10
## 2509  2020-11-08               South West     10
## 2510  2020-11-09               South West     12
## 2511  2020-11-10               South West      6
## 2512  2020-11-11               South West     13
## 2513  2020-11-12               South West     17
## 2514  2020-11-13               South West      9
## 2515  2020-11-14               South West      8
## 2516  2020-11-15               South West     16
## 2517  2020-11-16               South West     18
## 2518  2020-11-17               South West     17
## 2519  2020-11-18               South West     26
## 2520  2020-11-19               South West     15
## 2521  2020-11-20               South West     25
## 2522  2020-11-21               South West     25
## 2523  2020-11-22               South West     24
## 2524  2020-11-23               South West     14
## 2525  2020-11-24               South West     20
## 2526  2020-11-25               South West     25
## 2527  2020-11-26               South West     16
## 2528  2020-11-27               South West     21
## 2529  2020-11-28               South West     35
## 2530  2020-11-29               South West     15
## 2531  2020-11-30               South West     22
## 2532  2020-12-01               South West     19
## 2533  2020-12-02               South West     15
## 2534  2020-12-03               South West     14
## 2535  2020-12-04               South West     20
## 2536  2020-12-05               South West     17
## 2537  2020-12-06               South West     13
## 2538  2020-12-07               South West     16
## 2539  2020-12-08               South West     19
## 2540  2020-12-09               South West     22
## 2541  2020-12-10               South West     21
## 2542  2020-12-11               South West     20
## 2543  2020-12-12               South West     15
## 2544  2020-12-13               South West     19
## 2545  2020-12-14               South West     20
## 2546  2020-12-15               South West     20
## 2547  2020-12-16               South West      9
## 2548  2020-12-17               South West     26
## 2549  2020-12-18               South West     11
## 2550  2020-12-19               South West     22
## 2551  2020-12-20               South West     19
## 2552  2020-12-21               South West     22
## 2553  2020-12-22               South West     11
## 2554  2020-12-23               South West     16
## 2555  2020-12-24               South West     18
## 2556  2020-12-25               South West     19
## 2557  2020-12-26               South West     24
## 2558  2020-12-27               South West     24
## 2559  2020-12-28               South West     21
## 2560  2020-12-29               South West     20
## 2561  2020-12-30               South West     17
## 2562  2020-12-31               South West     28
## 2563  2021-01-01               South West     29
## 2564  2021-01-02               South West     24
## 2565  2021-01-03               South West     28
## 2566  2021-01-04               South West     33
## 2567  2021-01-05               South West     31
## 2568  2021-01-06               South West     27
## 2569  2021-01-07               South West     31
## 2570  2021-01-08               South West     34
## 2571  2021-01-09               South West     26
## 2572  2021-01-10               South West     34
## 2573  2021-01-11               South West     40
## 2574  2021-01-12               South West     53
## 2575  2021-01-13               South West     43
## 2576  2021-01-14               South West     39
## 2577  2021-01-15               South West     47
## 2578  2021-01-16               South West     57
## 2579  2021-01-17               South West     42
## 2580  2021-01-18               South West     47
## 2581  2021-01-19               South West     45
## 2582  2021-01-20               South West     65
## 2583  2021-01-21               South West     62
## 2584  2021-01-22               South West     60
## 2585  2021-01-23               South West     54
## 2586  2021-01-24               South West     59
## 2587  2021-01-25               South West     62
## 2588  2021-01-26               South West     47
## 2589  2021-01-27               South West     46
## 2590  2021-01-28               South West     52
## 2591  2021-01-29               South West     42
## 2592  2021-01-30               South West     39
## 2593  2021-01-31               South West     36
## 2594  2021-02-01               South West     29
## 2595  2021-02-02               South West     38
## 2596  2021-02-03               South West     32
## 2597  2021-02-04               South West     33
## 2598  2021-02-05               South West     25
## 2599  2021-02-06               South West     39
## 2600  2021-02-07               South West     35
## 2601  2021-02-08               South West     32
## 2602  2021-02-09               South West     31
## 2603  2021-02-10               South West     18
## 2604  2021-02-11               South West     19
## 2605  2021-02-12               South West     28
## 2606  2021-02-13               South West     29
## 2607  2021-02-14               South West     17
## 2608  2021-02-15               South West     22
## 2609  2021-02-16               South West     12
## 2610  2021-02-17               South West     20
## 2611  2021-02-18               South West     21
## 2612  2021-02-19               South West     18
## 2613  2021-02-20               South West     12
## 2614  2021-02-21               South West     16
## 2615  2021-02-22               South West     11
## 2616  2021-02-23               South West      6
## 2617  2021-02-24               South West      9
## 2618  2021-02-25               South West     12
## 2619  2021-02-26               South West      6
## 2620  2021-02-27               South West      6
## 2621  2021-02-28               South West     10
## 2622  2021-03-01               South West     15
## 2623  2021-03-02               South West      8
## 2624  2021-03-03               South West      3
## 2625  2021-03-04               South West      4
## 2626  2021-03-05               South West      4
## 2627  2021-03-06               South West      6
## 2628  2021-03-07               South West      1
## 2629  2021-03-08               South West      8
## 2630  2021-03-09               South West      2
## 2631  2021-03-10               South West      1
## 2632  2021-03-11               South West      0

1.5 Completion date

We extract the completion date from the NHS Pathways file timestamp:


database_date <- attr(x, "timestamp")
database_date
## [1] "2021-03-11"

The completion date of the NHS Pathways data is Thursday 11 Mar 2021.

1.6 Auxiliary functions

These are functions which will be used further in the analyses.

Function to estimate the generalised R-squared as the proportion of deviance explained by a given model:


## Function to calculate R2 for Poisson model
## not adjusted for model complexity but all models have the same DF here

Rsq <- function(x) {
  1 - (x$deviance / x$null.deviance)
}

Function to extract growth rates per region as well as halving times, and the associated 95% confidence intervals:


## function to extract the coefficients, find the level of the intercept,
## reconstruct the values of r, get confidence intervals

get_r <- function(model) {
  ##  extract coefficients and conf int
  out <- data.frame(r = coef(model))  %>%
    rownames_to_column("var") %>% 
    cbind(confint(model)) %>%
    filter(!grepl("day_of_week", var)) %>% 
    filter(grepl("day", var)) %>%
    rename(lower_95 = "2.5 %",
           upper_95 = "97.5 %") %>%
    mutate(var = sub("day:", "", var))
  
  ## reconstruct values: intercept + region-coefficient
  for (i in 2:nrow(out)) {
    out[i, -1] <- out[1, -1] + out[i, -1]
  }
  
  ## find the name of the intercept, restore regions names
  out <- out %>%
    mutate(nhs_region = model$xlevels$nhs_region) %>%
    select(nhs_region, everything(), -var)
  
  ## find halving times
  halving <- log(0.5) / out[,-1] %>%
    rename(halving_t = r,
           halving_t_lower_95 = lower_95,
           halving_t_upper_95 = upper_95)
  
  ## set halving times with exclusion intervals to NA
  no_halving <- out$lower_95 < 0 & out$upper_95 > 0
  halving[no_halving, ] <- NA_real_
  
  ## return all data
  cbind(out, halving)
  
}

Functions used in the correlation analysis between NHS Pathways reports and deaths:

## Function to calculate Pearson's correlation between deaths and lagged
## reports. Note that `pearson` can be replaced with `spearman` for rank
## correlation.

getcor <- function(x, ndx) {
  return(cor(x$deaths[ndx],
             x$note_lag[ndx],
             use = "complete.obs",
             method = "pearson"))
}

## Catch if sample size throws an error
getcor2 <- possibly(getcor, otherwise = NA)

getboot <- function(x) {
  result <- boot::boot.ci(boot::boot(x, getcor2, R = 1000), 
                           type = "bca")
  return(data.frame(n = sum(!is.na(x$note_lag) & !is.na(x$deaths)),
                    r = result$t0,
                    r_low = result$bca[4],
                    r_hi = result$bca[5]))
}

Function to classify the day of the week into weekend, Monday, and the rest:


## Fn to add day of week
day_of_week <- function(df) {
  df %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = lubridate::wday(date, label = TRUE)) %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = dplyr::case_when(
      day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun") ~ "weekend",
      day_of_week %in% c("Mon") ~ "monday",
      !(day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun", "Mon")) ~ "rest_of_week"
    ) %>% 
      factor(levels = c("rest_of_week", "monday", "weekend")))
}

Custom color palettes, color scales, and vectors of colors:


pal <- c("#006212",
         "#ae3cab",
         "#00db90",
         "#960c00",
         "#55aaff",
         "#ff7e78",
         "#00388d")

age.pal <- viridis::viridis(3,begin = 0.1, end = 0.7)

3 Comparison with deaths time series

3.1 Outline

We want to explore the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths, and assess the potential for reports to be used as an early warning system for disease resurgence.

Death data are publically available. We truncate the time series to avoid bias from reporting delay - we assume a conservative delay of three weeks.

3.2 Lagged correlation

We calculate Pearson’s correlation coefficient between deaths and NHS Pathways notifications using different lags. Confidence intervals are obtained using bootstrap. Note that results were also confirmed using Spearman’s rank correlation.

First we join the NHS Pathways and death data, and aggregate over all England:

## truncate death data for reporting delay
trunc_date <- max(dth$date_report) - delay_max

dth_trunc <- dth %>%
  rename(date = date_report) %>%
  filter(date <= trunc_date) 

## join with notification data
all_data <- x %>% 
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>%
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = T)) %>%
  ungroup %>%
  inner_join(dth_trunc,
             by = c("date","nhs_region"))

all_tot <- all_data %>%
  group_by(date) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = TRUE),
            deaths = sum(deaths, na.rm = TRUE)) 

We calculate correlation with lagged NHS Pathways reports from 0 to 30 days behind deaths:


## Calculate all correlations + bootstrap CIs
lag_cor <- data.frame()
for (i in 0:30) {
  
  ## lag reports
  summary <- all_tot %>% 
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI
    getboot(.) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)

  lag_cor <- bind_rows(lag_cor, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag <- ggplot(lag_cor, aes(lag, r)) +
  theme_bw() +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)",
       y = "Pearson's correlation") +
  large_txt
cor_vs_lag


l_opt <- which.max(lag_cor$r)

This analysis suggests that the best lag is 15 days. We then compare and plot the number of deaths reported against the number of NHS Pathways reports lagged by 15 days.


all_tot <- all_tot %>%
  rename(date_death = date) %>%
  mutate(note_lag = lag(count, lag_cor$lag[l_opt]),
         note_lag_c = (note_lag - mean(note_lag, na.rm = T)),
         date_note = lag(date_death,16))

lag_mod <- glm(deaths ~ note_lag, data = all_tot, family = "quasipoisson")

summary(lag_mod)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = deaths ~ note_lag, family = "quasipoisson", data = all_tot)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -19.186  -16.169   -5.021    6.432   32.730  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 5.228e+00  6.478e-02  80.711   <2e-16 ***
## note_lag    1.133e-05  1.236e-06   9.167   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 219.1873)
## 
##     Null deviance: 81586  on 322  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 67972  on 321  degrees of freedom
##   (15 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

exp(coefficients(lag_mod))
## (Intercept)    note_lag 
##  186.502222    1.000011
exp(confint(lag_mod))
##                  2.5 %     97.5 %
## (Intercept) 163.892157 211.291102
## note_lag      1.000009   1.000014

Rsq(lag_mod)
## [1] 0.1668656

mod_fit <- as.data.frame(predict(lag_mod, type = "link", se.fit = TRUE)[1:2])

all_tot_pred <- 
  all_tot %>%
  filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  mutate(pred = mod_fit$fit,
         pred.se = mod_fit$se.fit,
         low = exp(pred - 1.96*pred.se),
         hi = exp(pred + 1.96*pred.se))


glm_fit <- all_tot_pred %>% 
    filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = note_lag, y = deaths)) +
  geom_point() + 
  geom_line(aes(y = exp(pred))) + 
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = low, ymax = hi), alpha = 0.3, col = "grey") +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(y = "Daily number of\ndeaths reported",
       x = "Daily number of NHS Pathways reports") +
  large_txt

glm_fit

4 Supplementary figures

4.1 Serial interval distribution

This is a comparison of gamma versus lognormal distribution for the serial interval used to convert r to R in our analysis. Both distributions are parameterised with mean 4.7 and standard deviation 2.9.

SI_param <- epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale, w = 0.5)

SI_distribution2 <- distcrete::distcrete("lnorm", interval = 1,
                                        meanlog = log(4.7),
                                        sdlog = log(2.9), w = 0.5)

SI_dist1 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist1 <- count(SI_dist1, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 30, 5)) +
    theme_bw()

SI_dist2 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution2$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist2 <- count(SI_dist2, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 200, 20), limits = c(0, 200)) +
    theme_bw()


ggpubr::ggarrange(SI_dist1,
                  SI_dist2,
                  nrow = 1,
                  labels = "AUTO") 

4.2 Sensitivity analysis - 7 or 21 days moving window

We reproduce the window analysis with either a 7 or 21 days window for sensitivity purposes.

First with the 7 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 7

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_7days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_7days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_7days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_7days <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
plot_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_7 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

Then with the 21 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 21

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_21days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_21days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_21days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_21days <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
# plot
plot_R <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_21 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

And we combine both outputs into a single plot:


ggpubr::ggarrange(r_R_7,
                  r_R_21,
                  nrow = 2,
                  labels = "AUTO",
                  common.legend = TRUE,
                  legend = "bottom") 

4.3 Correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths by NHS region


lag_cor_reg <- data.frame()

for (i in 0:30) {

  summary <-
    all_data %>%
    group_by(nhs_region) %>%
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI for each region
    group_modify(~getboot(.x)) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)
  
  lag_cor_reg <- bind_rows(lag_cor_reg, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag_reg <- 
lag_cor_reg %>%
ggplot(aes(lag, r, col = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi, col = NULL, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  facet_wrap(~nhs_region) +
  scale_color_manual(values = pal) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = pal, guide = F) +  
  theme_bw() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)", y = "Pearson's correlation", col = "NHS region") +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(override.aes = list(fill = NA)))

cor_vs_lag_reg

5 Export data

We save the tables created during our analysis:


if (!dir.exists("excel_tables")) {
  dir.create("excel_tables")
}


## list all tables, and loop over export
tables_to_export <- c("r_all_sliding", "lag_cor")

for (e in tables_to_export) {
  rio::export(get(e),
              file.path("excel_tables",
                        paste0(e, ".xlsx")))
}

## also export result from regression on lagged data 
rio::export(lag_mod, file.path("excel_tables", "lag_mod.rds"))

6 System information

6.1 Outline

The following information documents the system on which the document was compiled.

6.2 System

This provides information on the operating system.

Sys.info()
##                                                                                             sysname 
##                                                                                            "Darwin" 
##                                                                                             release 
##                                                                                            "19.6.0" 
##                                                                                             version 
## "Darwin Kernel Version 19.6.0: Tue Jan 12 22:13:05 PST 2021; root:xnu-6153.141.16~1/RELEASE_X86_64" 
##                                                                                            nodename 
##                                                                           "Mac-1615630208529.local" 
##                                                                                             machine 
##                                                                                            "x86_64" 
##                                                                                               login 
##                                                                                              "root" 
##                                                                                                user 
##                                                                                            "runner" 
##                                                                                      effective_user 
##                                                                                            "runner"

6.3 R environment

This provides information on the version of R used:

R.version
##                _                           
## platform       x86_64-apple-darwin17.0     
## arch           x86_64                      
## os             darwin17.0                  
## system         x86_64, darwin17.0          
## status                                     
## major          4                           
## minor          0.4                         
## year           2021                        
## month          02                          
## day            15                          
## svn rev        80002                       
## language       R                           
## version.string R version 4.0.4 (2021-02-15)
## nickname       Lost Library Book

6.4 R packages

This provides information on the packages used:

sessionInfo()
## R version 4.0.4 (2021-02-15)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Catalina 10.15.7
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRblas.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     
## 
## other attached packages:
##  [1] ggnewscale_0.4.5     ggpubr_0.4.0         lubridate_1.7.10    
##  [4] chngpt_2020.10-12    cyphr_1.1.0          DT_0.17             
##  [7] kableExtra_1.3.4     janitor_2.1.0        remotes_2.2.0       
## [10] projections_0.5.2    earlyR_0.0.5         epitrix_0.2.2       
## [13] distcrete_1.0.3      incidence_1.7.3      rio_0.5.26          
## [16] reshape2_1.4.4       rvest_1.0.0          xml2_1.3.2          
## [19] linelist_0.0.40.9000 forcats_0.5.1        stringr_1.4.0       
## [22] dplyr_1.0.5          purrr_0.3.4          readr_1.4.0         
## [25] tidyr_1.1.3          tibble_3.1.0         ggplot2_3.3.3       
## [28] tidyverse_1.3.0      here_1.0.1           reportfactory_0.0.5 
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] minqa_1.2.4       colorspace_2.0-0  selectr_0.4-2     ggsignif_0.6.1   
##  [5] ellipsis_0.3.1    rprojroot_2.0.2   snakecase_0.11.0  fs_1.5.0         
##  [9] rstudioapi_0.13   farver_2.1.0      fansi_0.4.2       splines_4.0.4    
## [13] knitr_1.31        jsonlite_1.7.2    nloptr_1.2.2.2    broom_0.7.5      
## [17] dbplyr_2.1.0      compiler_4.0.4    httr_1.4.2        backports_1.2.1  
## [21] assertthat_0.2.1  Matrix_1.3-2      cli_2.3.1         htmltools_0.5.1.1
## [25] tools_4.0.4       gtable_0.3.0      glue_1.4.2        Rcpp_1.0.6       
## [29] carData_3.0-4     cellranger_1.1.0  vctrs_0.3.6       svglite_2.0.0    
## [33] nlme_3.1-152      matchmaker_0.1.1  crosstalk_1.1.1   xfun_0.22        
## [37] ps_1.6.0          openxlsx_4.2.3    lme4_1.1-26       lifecycle_1.0.0  
## [41] statmod_1.4.35    rstatix_0.7.0     MASS_7.3-53       scales_1.1.1     
## [45] hms_1.0.0         parallel_4.0.4    sodium_1.1        yaml_2.2.1       
## [49] curl_4.3          gridExtra_2.3     stringi_1.5.3     highr_0.8        
## [53] kyotil_2020.10-12 boot_1.3-26       zip_2.1.1         rlang_0.4.10     
## [57] pkgconfig_2.0.3   systemfonts_1.0.1 evaluate_0.14     lattice_0.20-41  
## [61] labeling_0.4.2    htmlwidgets_1.5.3 cowplot_1.1.1     tidyselect_1.1.0 
## [65] plyr_1.8.6        magrittr_2.0.1    R6_2.5.0          generics_0.1.0   
## [69] DBI_1.1.1         mgcv_1.8-33       pillar_1.5.1      haven_2.3.1      
## [73] foreign_0.8-81    withr_2.4.1       survival_3.2-7    abind_1.4-5      
## [77] modelr_0.1.8      crayon_1.4.1      car_3.0-10        utf8_1.2.1       
## [81] rmarkdown_2.7     viridis_0.5.1     grid_4.0.4        readxl_1.3.1     
## [85] data.table_1.14.0 reprex_1.0.0      digest_0.6.27     webshot_0.5.2    
## [89] munsell_0.5.0     viridisLite_0.3.0